617
FXUS63 KLBF 292317
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
617 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
- THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE (HIGHS IN 60S) FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ACROSS THE AREA, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CIRRUS IS STREAMING INTO
THE AREA ALOFT, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS, AND AT LEAST WEAK WARM ADVECTION TO THE
AREA. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
20S EXPECTED. THE WEAK SOUTH WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER,
AS A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ITS PASSAGE, WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT,
THOUGH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR SHOULD CONTINUE. THIS
WEAKENING OF WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE DEGREE OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, LIMITING THE OVERLAP
OF STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES. STILL, ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S, WITH
SKIES REMAINING SUNNY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, LEADING TO WEAKER WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MORE CONSTRICTED, AND NORTHWEST WINDS
AGAIN GUST 25 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BACKING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS KEEPS HIGHS
COOLER FRIDAY, ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND
THE LOWER 50S NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY ELEVATED, AND LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE GUSTIEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN TRANSLATES SOUTHWARD INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, CENTERING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA NEAR SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE ANOTHER VERY COLD MORNING, WITH LOWS INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. ANY HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE IMPACTED
BY THE COLD AS WELL, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 30S
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COMBINE THIS WITH 5-10MPH WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AND WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ARE
EXPECTED BY 9-10PM CDT.
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH UPPER RIDGING
SLOWLY TRANSLATING INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AND COULD LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE CONCERNS AGAIN. THE AREA THEN
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S LOOKING TO STICK AROUND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGER WINDS
RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...KULIK
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