043
FXUS63 KLBF 310515
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE (HIGHS IN 60S) FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF MILD, DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
CURRENTLY, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR BEING OBSERVED.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS REPRIEVE FROM THE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER, AS A SECOND COLD FRONT THEN QUICKLY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR AREAS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80. ADD IN THE INCREASING COLD
ADVECTION HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, AND A BRISK
HALLOWEEN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN FACT, AREAS NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FURTHER IMPACT ANY EVENING
HALLOWEEN PLANS, AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN BEGINS TO ESTABLISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER EAST, WARM ADVECTION
IS SLOWER TO ESTABLISH, AND HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR ONE MORE
DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
BY SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE PLAINS,
WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURNING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE. AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS ARE BOOSTED INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 83.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AIR AND PUSH HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ADD IN THE GUSTY WEST WINDS, AND INCREASING
FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN PERSISTS ALOFT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POINTING TO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF A
BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, HIGHS LOOK TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE 60S NEARLY EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
PERIODIC FIRE WEATHER THREATS, DEPENDENT ON WINDS EACH DAY. TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, WITH PERSISTENT MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGER WINDS
RETURN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...KULIK
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