940
FXUS63 KLBF 311124
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE AREA.
- AFTER BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TODAY
AND SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA. WITHIN THIS TROUGH
SEVERAL CLOSED SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED. CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO NY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO VIRGINIA. EAST OF THIS FEATURE, HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED
WEST SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FURTHER WEST, CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE NOTED
OVER NORTHEASTERN IOWA. A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INTO
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WEST OF THE MANITOBA LOW, RIDGING EXTENDED
NORTH FROM WASHINGTON STATE, NORTH INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA. WEST OF THIS RIDGE, STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT, LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT.
OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CDT RANGED FROM 25 DEGREES AT
GRANT TO 39 DEGREES AT AINSWORTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THE MANITOBA LOW WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST TODAY, TRAVERSING MOST
OF MINNESOTA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BEGINNING THIS MORNING WITH THE
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE LOWER 50S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER FAR SW NEBRASKA.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND BUFKIT
SOUNDING DATA INDICATES SOME GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 30 MPH. ATTM,
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHEST GUSTS APPEARS TO BE OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND BETTER SURFACE HEATING IS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER MIXING
POTENTIAL AND STRONGER WINDS. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA, COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, WILL BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP, INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. WITH SOME OF THIS EVENING'S HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS, DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN IOWA. FURTHER
WEST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY
AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO TRANSITION EAST ON SATURDAY, DELAYING
THE ONSET OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON H85
TEMPS AT 21Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S IN THE EAST, TO THE LOWER 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY AIR IN
PLACE, MINIMUM RH WILL REACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. AS FOR WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH, EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE WOULD
LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IDEA
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA, WHICH
LIMITS GUST POTENTIAL TO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEARS PROBABLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY ATTM. A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE, WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST OF
THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO HIGHS IN
THE 60S FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 3000 TO 8000 FT AGL NORTH AND EAST OF A
KVTN TO KBBW LINE. WEST OF THIS LINE, CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM
15000 TO 20000 AGL. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 10 KTS OR LESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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