372
FXUS63 KLBF 312346
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
646 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SOME WET SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY SUNDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH GUSTY WINDS REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WAS LARGELY DRIVEN BY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS SITTING OVER WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WAS SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW CHANGES
TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO
SATURDAY.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST WILL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS STRONG CAA CONTINUES.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH AND BRING THE CORE OF COLDER AIR WITH IT. THIS WILL PROMOTE
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. AS THE
COLUMN COOLS, BELIEVE LAPSE RATE INDUCED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLURRIES AND/OR WET SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
FAVOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THESE AREAS WILL ONLY MARGINALLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK AND
AS A RESULT, NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN ANTECEDENT WARM
GROUNDS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SO
MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND ANY QPF WILL BE LIMITED TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. AS MENTIONED, EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 WILL SEE
LOWS AROUND 30F BUT FURTHER WEST WE SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER VALUES
WITH MIDDLE TEENS OVER THE WESTERN SANDHILLS TO MIDDLE 20S FURTHER
EAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SATURDAY...UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND
SUBSIDENCE FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND IT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AND PROMOTE A DRY BUT COOLER DAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 50S IN THE FAR WEST TO MIDDLE 40S IN THE EAST.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL HERALD THE
WARMING EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY...PERHAPS THE DAY OF GREATEST INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM. WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME FOLLOWING A MORE
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL GLIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY NOT BRING DIRECT IMPACTS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, A TRAILING COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND MOVE
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS, WAA WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 12-16C, OR
SURPASSING THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY. THE RESULT IS
DAYTIME HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S FOR MANY AND PERHAPS MAKING A RUN
AT 80F FOR OUR FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. THESE VALUES RANGE FROM 15-20F
ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND THE
RESULT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABNORMAL WARMTH IS TO PUSH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS INTO THE 15-25% RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THOUGH THE
STRONGEST FLOW MAY FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HUMIDITY BEGINS TO
RECOVER. THIS IS A THREAT THAT NEEDS MONITORED. FOR NOW, WILL
CHARACTERIZE THIS AS ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD WINDS TICK UP IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS, FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...TEMPERATURES WAVER IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
COOLDOWN ON MONDAY BUT A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY. THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO A WESTERLY PUSH OF WARMER AIR
BEHIND A PASSING WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL GO FROM MIDDLE/UPPER 50S
MONDAY TO UPPER 60S/MIDDLE 70S TUESDAY. WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY TUESDAY, THE LACK OF GREATER
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ZONAL FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THAT STRETCH. A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND MAY INTRODUCE SOME LOW-END PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, THE GOING FORECAST IS
DRY BUT AS MODEL CERTAINTY INCREASES I EXPECT POPS TO EVENTUALLY BE
INTRODUCED TOWARDS THURSDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
FOR TONIGHT, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME, LIMITED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO KVTN. LOWERING CEILINGS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA DROPPING DOWN TO
1500 FEET. CEILINGS IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...KULIK
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