462
FXUS63 KLBF 010813
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
313 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY, READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S
FOR SUNDAY, INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83.
- GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS ACROSS THE AREA.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH, NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND CLOSED LOW WAS
NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST OF THIS FEATURE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. NORTH OF THIS LOW ANOTHER DECENT SHORTWAVE
WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. FURTHER WEST, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IDAHO NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA. AT THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. EAST OF THIS
FEATURE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT, SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER WAS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 2 AM CDT, RANGED FROM 25 DEGREES AT GRANT TO 36 DEGREES AT
O'NEILL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY, ENDING UP NEAR SAINT LOUIS BY 00Z SUNDAY. AS
THIS FEATURE TRACKS AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA, CLOUD COVER
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA, WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RISE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE EXITING HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON, SO MIXING THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES
AT THE H85 LEVEL, WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST, TO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE FAR WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
DID TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THIS EVENING'S RUN. THAT BEING
SAID, WENT AHEAD AND BLENDED PERSISTENCE WITH THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDED HIGHS AROUND 1 TO 2
DEGREES WARMER (MAINLY IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA) FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL BE
MUCH MILDER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING. ON
SUNDAY AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWESTERN INTO
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG THE INVERTED
TROUGH, A POCKET OF VERY WARM AIR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS WILL APPROACH 20C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEST WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH, HIGHS COULD APPROACH NEAR 80
IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE COMBINATION OF READINGS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY WINDS ARE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WHICH WOULD
PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, IF WINDS
ARE STRONGER AND THE IMPACT OF THE INVERTED TROUGH ON LIMITING
WIND SPEEDS IS WEAKENED, WE COULD APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, AM
NOT ANTICIPATING HEADLINES, HOWEVER, WILL PROBABLY MENTION NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER FAR SW NEBRASKA AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE, WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA, FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE UPPER 50S. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS,
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS
PATTERN REGIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, HOWEVER, IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. LOWERING CEILINGS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA DROPPING DOWN TO
2000 FEET. CEILINGS IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO THE REGION. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...KULIK
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