940
FXUS63 KLBF 081121
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
521 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH IS
EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. AREAS NORTH OF
US-20 COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF NEW QPF BY THE END OF
SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS ALL RAIN. WHILE THE PAST FEW FORECAST RUNS
SHOW SOME BRIEF SNOW ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE, THE LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE, HAVE REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE FORECAST IN THAT AREA.
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROUGH, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO
NEBRASKA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES
FROM FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF I-80.
MORE OF A CONCERN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL BE SOME STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD TO THE WEST.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST
PROBABILITY SUGGESTS SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS HAVE AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING GUSTS
HIGHER THAN WHAT IS FORECASTED. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS PROBABILITY OF SEEING GUSTS UP TO 58
MPH (HIGH WIND CRITERIA) IS ONLY AROUND 15 PERCENT, LEADING TO A
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REACHING GUSTS THAT HIGH. WINDS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR TEMPERATURES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL USHER IN
850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -6 TO -10 C RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH ABOVE THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN CHILLY
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE CALM
WINDS, CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THIS COOLER AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S
AND INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURGE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF BOTH
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, WHILE KVTN WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION, IT WILL STILL EXPERIENCE SOME LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES. OVERALL, THE MAJOR AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AFTER SUNRISE, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS DROP BACK BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z
SUNDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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