074
FXUS63 KLBF 101953
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
153 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY FORECAST THIS WEEK, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
- WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME
BRIEF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK APPEARS
LOW, AS STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OVERLAP WITH LOWEST
HUMIDITY VALUES.
- A WEEKEND SYSTEM BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
A RETURN OF COOLER, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN COOLING TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OBSERVED TO THE
EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE.
TOMORROW, HIGHS BUILD INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. FOR REFERENCE, THE TYPICAL HIGH TEMPERATURE AT NORTH
PLATTE THIS TIME OF YEAR IS AROUND 55 DEGREES. AS THE FRONT PASSES
TOMORROW, EXPECTING TO SEE WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY, AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES, ROUGHLY 35 TO 40
PERCENT, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THEN DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WARM, DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY, A DRY COOL FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE,
A SLIGHT COOL OFF IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT, FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES BREAK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO DRIVE LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS. WILL BE
MONITORING THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT
FOR NOW, THE RISK APPEARS LOW, AS STRONGER WIND GUSTS, UP TO 25
MPH, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES.
FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING
A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM
ALSO BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY AROUND A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING
INTO THE 50S. THIS IS FAIRLY IN LINE WITH OUR NORMAL SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES, AS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS FOR NEXT MONDAY ARE AROUND
52 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THIS WEEKEND, SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
PRECIPITATION TIMING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. IF PRECIPITATION
MANAGES TO FALL DURING THESE COOL OVERNIGHT PERIODS, SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL MAY BE SEEM ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH PROBABILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW, WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SNOW FLURRIES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WIDE EXPANSE OF CIRRUS IS
OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, THOUGH NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO AVIATION. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. OVERNIGHT, WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE WINDS
OVERNIGHT, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, INCLUDING THE KVTN TERMINAL,
WHICH MAY BRING LLWS CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BY MID
MORNING, MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS AFTER THE EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...RICHIE
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