420
FXUS63 KLBF 111721
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1121 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
- A RETURN TO FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST, STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP, AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TRACK STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
- COOLER, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
US, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE BACK ABOVE NORMALS.
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RETURNS TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 15 TO 18 C RANGE PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
THIS PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO FIRE CONCERNS. AT THIS
TIME, AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE SLIGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO
BRING SOME DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT WINDS ON
THURSDAY, WOULD ONLY EXPECT A RETURN TO ELEVATED CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-83. A SIMILAR SET-UP IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY,
BUT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
IS POSSIBLE. A OVERLAP OF RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT AND THESE
STRONGER WINDS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ELEVATED OR NEAR-CRITICAL DAY
ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ARRIVES BY SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH, THE
LATEST TRENDS HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
THEREFORE, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SLID TO THE
SOUTH, HAVE REMOVED MOST OF THE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD SEE SOME BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.
A BETTER POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION COULD ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE DEVELOPMENT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (15 TO 25 PERCENT) ACROSS THE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY MILD ACROSS NEBRASKA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BOTH THESE SYSTEMS OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS.
FOR TEMPERATURES, ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY, SOME COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMALS IN THE 50S
FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. BY EVENING, AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES, WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...RICHIE
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