000
FXUS63 KLBF 112357
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
557 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP AROUND OR BELOW 20 PERCENT.
- A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND BRINGS COOLER, NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY, THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, THIS
IS MOSTLY A DRY COLD FRONT BRINGING S SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. EVEN WITH THESE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES, TOMORROW'S HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE OUR SEASONAL
AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. FOR REFERENCE, OUR TYPICAL HIGHS
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 50S, COOLING INTO THE LOW 50S BY
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
CONTINUING OUR ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION, AND
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.
WITH THIS EXPECTED WARM UP, HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD REACH THE UPPER
70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BRING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON THURSDAY,
WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WEST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND MOST OF CHERRY COUNTY. WESTERLY WINDS GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY.
GIVEN THESE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND GUSTY
WINDS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
ON THURSDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA, AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH ACROSS
MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS
WAKE. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS THIS COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, LEAVING COOLER, DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST, TRACKING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION, IT WILL BRING OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER, GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S, BUT THIS IS NOT MUCH COOLER THAN OUR TYPICAL HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE
HOW THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES INTERACT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BACK TOWARDS
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY BEING RAIN, THOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN WITH THE PRECIPITATION,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL LARGELY FAVOR NORTHEASTERLY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS MODEST HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR UNTIL INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE IN THE
PERIOD, THOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE 15KFT AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...NMJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page