684
FXUS63 KLBF 130554
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS MAY
LEAD TO AREAS OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON FRIDAY.
- A SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS A PATTERN SHIFT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK.
BY MID WEEK, CHANCES INCREASE TO SEE SNOW MIXING IN WITH
FALLING PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOST NOTABLY, HIGHS FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
IN FACT, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE PUSHING NEAR DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR
REFERENCE, OUR TYPICAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 51 TO 53 DEGREES FOR
NOVEMBER 14. HOWEVER, THIS FRIDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, CHALLENGING SEVERAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS. FOR VALENTINE, THE FORECAST HIGH IS 78, WITH THE DAILY
RECORD HIGH BEING 79. IMPERIAL IS FORECAST TO REACH 78 DEGREES, WITH
THE DAILY RECORD HIGH BEING 78. BOTH NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN BOW ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 76, WITH THEIR DAILY RECORD HIGHS BEING 78 AND 79,
RESPECTIVELY.
IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED AT OR BELOW
20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, NORTHERN NEBRASKA, AND THE
SANDHILLS ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND 20
TO 25 MPH ACROSS THESE AREAS OF LOW HUMIDITY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
AREAS OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLER, THOUGH STILL ABOVE AVERAGE,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND FALL INTO THE 60S, WHICH STILL REMAINS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN AVERAGE. HOWEVER, THE INTRODUCTION OF THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM BOTTOMING
OUT, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND.
REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS, THIS SYSTEM IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIPITATION AT
THIS TIME.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE STILL
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE LOWS, WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY THROW SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STARTING TO BE
SOME CONSISTENCY IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ON SUNDAY LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME,
PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN, BUT AGAIN CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AS
OF NOW, HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S,
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OUR TYPICAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S.
AGAIN, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PRECIPITATION TIMING, TYPES, AND
AMOUNTS, AS MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES.
HOWEVER, SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR
MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR WITH THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM. IN
FACT, THERE IS EVEN SOME SUGGESTION THAT OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION
WOULD MAINLY BE SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE NOT A "SLAM
DUNK" FOR CERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, THIS AT LEAST MERITS KEEPING AN
EYE ON AS THE PATTERN AND FORECAST EVOLVE THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION BUT
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...NMJ
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