957
FXUS63 KLBF 131141
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
541 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST, STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP, AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES
DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY BRING PRECIPITATION ARRIVES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TRACK STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
- COOLER, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND RESULTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 15 TO 20 C RANGE WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S ON
FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS ON FRIDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BREAKING RECORD
HIGHS AT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SITES, SPECIFICALLY BROKEN BOW AND
IMPERIAL WHERE RECORD HIGHS ARE 69 AND 73 RESPECTIVELY. LATEST
PROBABILITIES EVEN SUGGEST MUCH OF THE REGION HAS AT LEAST A 50
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING OVER 75 DEGREES ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF SEEING OVER 80 DEGREES NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN HITTING THESE FORECASTED HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THEY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES MORE OVER THE NEXT FORECAST
CYCLE OR TWO. HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WHICH IS STILL NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
BEFORE RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, LOWS IN THE LOW 40S MAY HAVE THE CHANCE OF
SETTING NEW MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL AT ALL FOUR
SITES (CURRENT RECORDS LBF: 38; VTN: 39; BBW: 40; IML: 34).
THIS PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO FIRE CONCERNS. THE MAIN DAY
OF CONCERN WILL BE ON FRIDAY WHEN AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP TO NEAR
20 PERCENT. THIS DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA RESULTING IN ELEVATED OR NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY MORNING
MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT FOR NOW, IT
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING (BEFORE SUNRISE) AND
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING (AFTER SUNSET) WHEN TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
UPCOMING DAYS.
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS BY TUESDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR DETAILS OR
TO PUT MUCH MORE THAN A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES, COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID 50S) FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL THROUGH THE EXTENDED, BUT WITH
FORECASTED LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, THESE WILL STILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (LOW 20S).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS DRY WEATHER PERSISTS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART, CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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