589
FXUS63 KLBF 141946
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
146 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COMBINATION OF RECORD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S) AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON.
- AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS INTO MIDDLE AND LATE WEEK,
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MOSTLY IN THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST/5 PM MST THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY NEAR 15 PERCENT WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TO 5 TO 15 MPH. A
COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTH DAKOTA, WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD AND MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, WITH LOWS FROM 40 TO AROUND 45 DEGREES.
SATURDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS
HOWEVER WILL STILL RANGE FROM 17 TO 21 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH CENTRAL TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 SOUTH. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH JUST SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDINESS. WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH, BECOME NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO
CALIFORNIA, WITH UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM MONTANA SOUTHWARD
INTO TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. LOWS ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL STILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER MILD DAY IN STORE. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH,
HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND REACH
COLORADO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS.
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW FROM EASTERN
COLORADO, MOVING NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER ON MONDAY BY THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEM TRACKS THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN. THE HIGHER POPS NEAR 50 PERCENT ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO ONLY A 15 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SOUTHWEST.
ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGH THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN. HIGHS
HAVE TRENDED WARMER, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES ON
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY.
WITH THE REGION INFLUENCES BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SOME UPPER 40S FRIDAY.
MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS AND DO NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION, WITH LOW CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT), FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS OF 25KTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS,
INCLUDING THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING, BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z SATURDAY, AT 10 TO 15KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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