010
FXUS63 KLBF 151117
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
517 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
- COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 60S IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, AND IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGHS FOR TODAY, THOUGH STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE
60S. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO WEAK NORTHERLY
WINDS. THIS, COMBINED WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY, WILL KEEP FIRE
CONCERNS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO DEPART OFF TO THE EAST INTO
SUNDAY, WITH SURFACE WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE.
ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES, WITH
ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND THIS LEADS TO
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL OFFSET THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
SOMEWHAT, AND HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE ON
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EJECT EAST ACROSS KANSAS,
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REMAINS LOW. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN PRECIPITATION TYPE,
HOWEVER. A LACK OF COLD AIR (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) POINTS
TO AN ALL RAIN P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING QPFS LOOK TO REMAIN MEAGER AT BEST
(<0.10"). THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY EXITS OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY
EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
QUIETER CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THIS LULL LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER, AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES BY LATE WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WIDELY WITH BOTH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, AND THIS LEADS TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION LOCALLY. THAT SAID, MUCH
LIKE MONDAY'S SYSTEM , A GENERAL LACK OF COLD AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION RAIN YET AGAIN. UNTIL SYNOPTIC FEATURES BECOME MORE
CLEAR, CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW IN PLACEMENT AND ASSOCIATED
AMOUNTS FOR NOW. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS AT LEAST LOW (20-40%)
PROBABILITIES FOR >0.1", THOUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA ARE
FAVORED FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK RETURN BACK TO NEAR AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AT 5 TO 10KTS. WINDS THEN
WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, AT 5KTS OR
LESS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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