968
FXUS63 KLBF 160559
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1159 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
- A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME, ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
TONIGHT, AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO
CALIFORNIA, WITH UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM MONTANA SOUTHWARD
INTO TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. LOWS ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL STILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 30S.
ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER MILD DAY IN STORE. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON, HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO UPPER 60S.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
MONDAY MORNING, TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGHS HAVE
TRENDED WARMER, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTH CENTRAL TO
AROUND 60 SOUTH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES ON
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA. A CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND REACH
SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXIST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS KANSAS AND EVENTUALLY GETS
SHEARED APART. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND TEXAS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE PWATS COULD REACH
AS HIGH AS 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL. APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM KEEP CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING FURTHER NORTH
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA COULD SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
APPEAR TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, THOUGH
THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WITH THE REGION INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN MID TO UPPER 40S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH SOME UPPER 40S FRIDAY. MID 50S FORECAST SATURDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY FAVORED FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT BENEATH DECREASING CLOUDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER.
THIS WILL INCLUDE THE VTN TERMINAL. THE MAGNITUDE OF IMPACT
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER
THE THREAT FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. BY LATE MORNING, CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO VFR AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...NMJ
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