013
FXUS63 KLBF 160957
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH THE FIRST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING ON
MONDAY.
- A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO EXISTS LATE WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER IS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS LEADING TO LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM OVER
THE ROCKIES, WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA.
FOR TODAY, THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT, AS IT TRANSLATES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CROSS INTO THE ROCKIES LATER TODAY, SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST, SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. THIS PROMOTES ONE MORE MILD DAY, WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S FOR ALL WEST OF HWY 281. EAST OF HWY 281,
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS MEAGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE HIGH,
AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT ONLY
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
AREA.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EJECTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE
DRY SLOT AND BE LARGELY DEVOID OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA, NEAR AND NORTH OF
HWY 20, IN THE INITIAL DEFORMATION AXIS BEFORE IT PIVOTS NORTH INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE NEXT WOULD BE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA,
NEAR AND EAST OF HWY 281, AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS POINTS TO MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS, WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA REMAINING DRY WITH THIS
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
(<0.10"), ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING
CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF
I-80. UPPER 50S ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSLATES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
MONDAY'S SYSTEM. WEAK COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY HOLDS HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY, AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS IS AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW IN
RECENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS, TRENDS TOWARDS BETTER CONSENSUS HAS BEEN
NOTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO HINT TOWARDS A
MUCH MORE FAVORABLE TRACK IN THIS UPPER LOW, THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
ON THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
PLACES THE AREA IN A MUCH FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PROLONGED
DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW THIS SOLUTION PAINT A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS (1-2"+) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR P-TYPE CHANGES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED, AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WITH TIME.SHOULD CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW
IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY FAVORED FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT BENEATH DECREASING CLOUDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER.
THIS WILL INCLUDE THE VTN TERMINAL. THE MAGNITUDE OF IMPACT
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER
THE THREAT FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. BY LATE MORNING, CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO VFR AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...NMJ
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