337
FXUS63 KLBF 170959
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN BACK TO THE LOW 60S ON WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
CURRENTLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO, WITH BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. WITHIN THIS BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH.
FOR TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED
TO EJECT EASTWARD ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, BECOMING A
CLOSED LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW THEN TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE STATE BY TONIGHT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS STATE LINE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION TODAY FOLLOWS SIMILAR THINKING OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING DEVOID
OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE DRY SLOT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING THE BULK OF DEFORMATION
AXIS PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NEAR AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL, LARGELY EAST OF THE AREA. STILL, AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 MAY SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY, AND WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE MENTION (25-40%) OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A LOW CHANCE (10-15%) EXISTS FOR WRAPAROUND PRECIP
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. REGARDLESS, AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY, GENERALLY ~0.10 OR
LESS. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT, ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY, AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S LOW. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S, WITH THE COOLEST HIGHS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS IS
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
BY WEDNESDAY, A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHING ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS LEADS TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION BOOSTS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE LOW 60S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A NOTABLE SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUITE, MORE IN LINE WITH BOTH THE
EPS/GEFS MEAN, HAS BEGUN TO FAVOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS
KANSAS WITH THE GREATEST QPF. THIS UNFORTUNATELY LEAVES MUCH OF
THE AREA NORTH OF A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
SHOULD THIS EVOLUTION OCCUR, LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-80 ARE STILL POSSIBLE, THOUGH LITTLE TO NOTHING WOULD
BE EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH. ENSEMBLE MEANS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH ~30-50% PROBABILITIES OF >0.1" ALONG I-80 TO AS
MUCH AS 60-80% ALONG HWY 6 THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH AT LEAST
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE HAS BEGUN
TO WANE IN IMPACTFUL RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEEK.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, THOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE UNTIL THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
EXPANSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OFF THE SURFACE
LEADING TO LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD.
EVENTUALLY, CIGS LOWER AND WILL LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THIS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING THIS AT VTN IS LIMITED ENOUGH THAT WILL
COVER WITH A PROB30 FOR NOW. LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ELSEWHERE WITH A RETURN TO VFR LIKELY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...NMJ
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