229
FXUS63 KLBF 180304 AAA
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
904 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH
OF I80. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I80.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, PARTICULARLY BBW AND ODX, AS WELL AS AREA
ROAD CAMERAS SHOW RAPIDLY DECREASING VISIBILITIES BENEATH
PIVOTING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
FOG AND EVEN DENSE FOG FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE, NOTABLY THE HRRR,
SUGGESTS < 0.50SM VISIBILITIES PERSIST UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
AS A RESULT, OPTED TO ISSUE A LOCALIZED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
CUSTER, BLAINE, AND LOUP COUNTIES TO COVER THIS THREAT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I80. LOWS
WILL REACH THE MID 30S, EXCEPT LOW 30S ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY, DRY AND COOLER, AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM,
WILL HIGHS NEAR 45 IN THE NORTHEAST, TO THE MID 50S WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY. SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL, WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
TUESDAY NIGHT, AN CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT RETURNS TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING A STRONG INVERSION WITH LOWS FROM THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN TRACK EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE GFS REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH,
WITH PRECIPITATION PLACED ACROSS KANSAS. THE ECMWF HAS A TRACK
FURTHER NORTH, WHILE STILL SHOWING RAINFALL FROM A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH SOUTH OF I80. NBM POPS REACH 30 TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF
I80 THURSDAY NIGHT INTO INTO FRIDAY MORNING, TO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FURTHER NORTH.
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THERE WILL BE A CLOSED LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE GFS DOES LIFT THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA, OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, THEN COOLING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 BY FRIDAY. MID TO UPPER 50S FORECAST SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD INCLUDE IMPACTS AT VTN WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AND LIFR ARE POSSIBLE. MUCH DRIER AIR
SHOULD WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT LBF AND THOUGH MVFR CIGS
APPEAR LIKELY, LITTLE TO NO FOG IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY BUT LOW STRATUS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAMPER AVIATION OPERATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
VALID PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NEZ026-027-038.
UPDATE...NMJ
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...NMJ
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