494
FXUS63 KLBF 180611
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1211 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH
OF I80. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I80.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 902 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS, PARTICULARLY BBW AND ODX, AS WELL AS AREA
ROAD CAMERAS SHOW RAPIDLY DECREASING VISIBILITIES BENEATH
PIVOTING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
FOG AND EVEN DENSE FOG FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE, NOTABLY THE HRRR,
SUGGESTS < 0.50SM VISIBILITIES PERSIST UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
AS A RESULT, OPTED TO ISSUE A LOCALIZED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
CUSTER, BLAINE, AND LOUP COUNTIES TO COVER THIS THREAT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I80. LOWS
WILL REACH THE MID 30S, EXCEPT LOW 30S ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA, LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY, DRY AND COOLER, AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM,
WILL HIGHS NEAR 45 IN THE NORTHEAST, TO THE MID 50S WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY. SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL, WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
TUESDAY NIGHT, AN CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT RETURNS TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING A STRONG INVERSION WITH LOWS FROM THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN TRACK EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH. CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE GFS REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH,
WITH PRECIPITATION PLACED ACROSS KANSAS. THE ECMWF HAS A TRACK
FURTHER NORTH, WHILE STILL SHOWING RAINFALL FROM A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH SOUTH OF I80. NBM POPS REACH 30 TO 50 PERCENT SOUTH OF
I80 THURSDAY NIGHT INTO INTO FRIDAY MORNING, TO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FURTHER NORTH.
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THERE WILL BE A CLOSED LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE GFS DOES LIFT THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA, OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, THEN COOLING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 BY FRIDAY. MID TO UPPER 50S FORECAST SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
FOG AND EXPANDING LOW STRATUS WILL HAMPER AVIATION OPERATIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PERIODIC VFR WITH DEGRADING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FOR MOST TERMINALS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE LIFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THOUGH IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. PERHAPS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS LOW. WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA.
EVEN SO, SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF GUSTS AT LBF CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ026>029-
038.
UPDATE...NMJ
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...NMJ
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