840
FXUS63 KLBF 190530
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1130 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF I-80.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
TONIGHT, STRATUS WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS HIGH
CLOUDINESS INCREASES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z, LASTING UNTIL MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY, MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S RETURNS AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP AGREE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. WILL NOT MENTION ATTM, AND MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
THE CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AS
IT TRACKS EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, TO ONLY A SIGHT CHANCE NEAR I80 AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. CHANCES CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS KANSAS AND EVENTUALLY GETS
SHEARED OUT. THE GFS REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH, WITH PRECIPITATION
REACHING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, THOUGH MAINLY ACROSS
KANSAS. THE ECMWF HAS A TRACK FURTHER NORTH. NBM POPS REACH 30
PERCENT AS FAR NORTH AS AN ALLIANCE THROUGH BROKEN BOW LINE TO
60 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. THERE WILL BE A CLOSED LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LIFTING THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND KANSAS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE 50S. NEAR 60 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
COOLING TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, GRADUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING. FURTHER NORTH, WINDS CONTINUE SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT, STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH MID
MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER CEILINGS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WHICH MAY BRING SOME MVFR TO IFR CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, CONDITIONS CLEAR, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...RICHIE
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