084
FXUS63 KLBF 190956
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BRINGING A THREAT FOR RAIN. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS
(0.25-0.50") ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN 30S) MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
CURRENTLY, PATCHY FOG PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 30S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. ALOFT,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO STRENGTHEN INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA, DRAGGING A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR HIGHWAY 83. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S
TODAY, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS FURTHER WEST. WEST OF HWY 83,
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS IT EJECTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY NIGHT, MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
SURFACE LOW, A DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING
ACROSS KANSAS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THAT SAID,
ACCUMULATIONS OF ~0.25-0.50" MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS I-80
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW FOR NOW, WITH LIKELY A SHARP CUTOFF
IN AMOUNTS. THIS IS DRIVEN BY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 2. THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA PRIOR TO SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW, LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION BOOSTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND SHOULD
LEAD TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
BIG PATTERN SHIFT MAY BE ON THE WAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US.
GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO SUGGEST A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES, ARRIVING BY EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A RETURN
OF MUCH COLDER HIGHS (HIGHS IN 30S) FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WITH COLD AIR ALSO LOOKING TO BE IN
PLACE, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASING HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, GRADUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING. FURTHER NORTH, WINDS CONTINUE SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT, STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH MID
MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER CEILINGS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WHICH MAY BRING SOME MVFR TO IFR CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, CONDITIONS CLEAR, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...RICHIE
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