483
FXUS63 KLBF 192342
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
542 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A GOOD THREAT FOR
RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 92.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ARE LOOKING
MORE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
- AFTER DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (HIGHS
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S), A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
TRENDS KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER MID RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIPITATION FURTHER
NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING AND
THE WEEKEND AFTER.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, NORTH INTO EASTERN IOWA. EAST OF THIS
FEATURE, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER NEW JERSEY. NORTH
OF THIS FEATURE, CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LABRADOR
NEWFOUNDLAND. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER SAN DIEGO CA. WEST OF THIS FEATURE, RIDGING HAD NOSED INTO
WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AROUND NORFOLK, WEST SOUTHWEST TO AROUND
IMPERIAL. WINDS EAST OF THIS FEATURE WERE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WEST OF THIS
TROUGH, WINDS WERE MORE WESTERLY AND SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CT, RANGED FROM 49
DEGREES AT NORTH PLATTE TO 67 DEGREES AT VALENTINE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT, SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND THE COMBINATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO
A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS, MAY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.
ATTM THE MAIN FOG THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
WHERE COOL AIR ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST AND CO-LOCATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE EARLY AS CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD STEADY OUT THEN POSSIBLY
RISE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE THE EROSION OF
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY PROBLEMATIC. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER, TRENDED HIGHS MORE TOWARD THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE.
THIS YIELDED HIGHS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE OFF HOUR MODEL TRENDS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING. ALOFT, THE H5 LOW (CURRENTLY OVER SAN DIEGO), WILL
TRACK INTO NEW MEXICO, EMERGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY
MID EVENING THURSDAY. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT (305K SURFACE),
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL
THEN LIFT DUE NORTH, APPROACHING FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
AROUND 21Z THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF FAVORABLE LIFT WILL LIFT AS
FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A GOOD THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST HAS AN AREA OF 0.5 TO 1.00"
OF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO
BRADY. BASED ON THE NBM PROBABILISTIC FORECAST, THERE IS A
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.25" OF QPF ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
IN MIND AND A QPF FORECAST WHICH TRENDED UP WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE, WILL EXTEND LIKELY POPS UP TO A LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO
BRADY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH, BELIEVE THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN QPF AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER DEFINED WITH ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE OR TWO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER, POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
EVENING FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW TRANSITIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE
NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. FURTHER SOUTH, HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MIDDLE 40S. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, EMERGING ONTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST NBM HAS A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC
SOLNS THIS MORNING HAVE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM,
LEADING TO A THREAT FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ATTM, WITH THIS SYSTEM DISCONNECTED FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM, PTYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. AS
FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND, READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS INITIAL FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AROUND MIDNIGHT, STRATUS BEGINS TO TRACK INTO
THE REGION, WHICH WILL BRING A QUICK DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL HUMIDITY, WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS, WHICH MAY TRACK INTO SOME LOCAL TERMINALS, INCLUDING
KLBF. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING EASTERLY
BY MORNING. ONCE POTENTIAL FOG DISSIPATES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOWER STRATUS NEAR THE END OF THE EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...RICHIE
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