051
FXUS63 KLBF 200940
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
340 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80 THIS
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25-0.50" ARE EXPECTED
FOR AREAS NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 0.50" ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 23.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH SCATTERED RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES (HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S) TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
CURRENTLY, STRATUS IS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA,
BEHIND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. AREAS OF
FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, AND IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER 20S IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY, EXPECTED FOG TO PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING, AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION PERSISTS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. EASTERLY WINDS THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEASTERN INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS PERSISTENT BROAD UPSLOPE FLOW
SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL. THE FORECAST LEANS ON LOWER
PERCENTILE GUIDANCE (HIGHS IN LOW 50S), THOUGH THIS STILL MAY
NOT BE AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH. THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW FOG TO PERSIST
LONGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
BY TONIGHT, AN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS, REACHING CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. AS AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT, BROAD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. THIS AREA OF INCREASING ASCENT THEN LIFTS NORTHWARDS BY
TONIGHT, WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. THE NORTH
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE, DUE
TO INCREASING DRY AIR INTO THE SANDHILLS. STILL, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
(<0.10") ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS HWY 2, WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS
FURTHER SOUTH. AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50" ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF I-80, WITH AMOUNTS >0.50" POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 23. THE
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING.
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY, AIDED BY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
A BRIEF LULL AWAITS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, AS DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ALOFT. THIS, COMBINED WITH
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BOOSTS HIGHS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS, REACHING WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WITH A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING NORTH FROM THIS LOW TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EJECTS ACROSS KANSAS, THOUGH THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.
A BIG PATTERN SHIFT IS THEN ON THE WAY BY MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDDLE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO LEAVE THE 30S FOR THE
UPCOMING THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY, AND COULD REMAIN THERE AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS EARLY DECEMBER EVEN. WITH THIS MUCH COLDER AIR IN
PLACE, TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH RESPECT TO ANY
PRECIPITATION AND ANY ASSOCIATED WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAZARDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
PATCHY FOG IS FORMING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TONIGHT, AND ALREADY BRINGING SOME VISIBILITY CONCERNS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALONG WITH FOG, LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED, WHICH MAY USHER
IN IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FOG AND LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING, WHEN BETTER MIXING IN THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS. EXPECTING A
WINDOW OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
MORE LOW STRATUS MOVES IN BY THE EVENING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...RICHIE
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