822
FXUS63 KLBF 211733
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1133 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S. BEHIND A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT,
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO, WILL TRAVERSE KANSAS TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION
PERSISTING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. SO FAR
THIS EVENING, THE NAM12 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE HAS DONE WELL
WITH THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THIS SURFACE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM OGALLALA, EAST COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CUSTER
COUNTY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
JUST NORTH OF THIS LINE, SO A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION WILL
EXIST THIS MORNING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE NORTH AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN PLACE SUPPORTED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST WARW, HRRR AND
NAM12 SOLNS, TIGHTENED UP POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY, POPS RANGE FROM
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF I-80 TO LIKELY POPS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA INDICATE REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH PATCHY FOG.
WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS, THE THREAT FOR FOG WILL CONTINUE AND ITS MENTION
WILL BE INCLUDED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AS FOR HIGHS TODAY,
READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN FA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST. ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS OF LIMITED CLEARING THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO POSSIBLY REACH INTO THE
LOWER 50S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONGOING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA, WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS ISN'T SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HRRR AND NAM12 SURFACE VISBY FORECAST, AS WELL AS THE LATEST
SREF FOG PROBABILITIES. WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL LEAVE OUT A
MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60,
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE SWRN CONUS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
FEATURE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY, LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS FROM COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
WITH THIS SYSTEM TOTALLY DISCONNECTED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA ON
MONDAY. BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM, A SECOND, NORTHERN STREAM
LOW, WILL TRACK FROM MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE AN INITIAL COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN STRONGER
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S MONDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN ENDS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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