197
FXUS63 KLBF 220912
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
- AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH RAIN EXPECTED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
CONUS. BROAD WEST TO EAST FLOW EXTENDED FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA, EAST
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITHIN THIS FLOW, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WITH A CLOSED LOW
LOCATED ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FURTHER SOUTH, A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. FURTHER WEST, A
CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS WERE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WERE UNDER 10 MPH. SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO O'NEILL. NORTH OF THIS LINE, SKIES
WERE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CT RANGED FROM
35 DEGREES AT OGALLALA TO 44 DEGREES AT NORTH PLATTE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO KANSAS BEFORE SUNRISE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY
MID MORNING. THIS WILL FORCE DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST, AND WILL END THE THREAT FOR FOG IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS, AND
WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE, LOWS WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY, THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12
SURFACE VISBY PRODUCTS, KEEP THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FOG WELL
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST SREF ENSEMBLE VISIBILITY FORECAST WHICH HAS THE BEST
THREAT FOR FOG OVER KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. THAT BEING SAID, WILL
FORGO MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
SUNDAY WILL START OUT DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, WILL
CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA, ENTERING CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z MONDAY.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, HOWEVER, CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDS KEEP THIS CLOUDINESS SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER PEAK HEATING, SO THE INHERITED TEMP FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. FORECAST QPF'S ARE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLES INDICATE LESS THAN A 50% CHANCE FOR
QPF>0.10" AND LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR QPF>0.20". BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S
OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. BY MONDAY NIGHT, A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW AND TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL
FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL FORCING WHICH
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW.
SOME OF THIS SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE NE/SD STATE LINE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NBM FORECAST INITIALIZED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC SOLNS.
THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS MIDWEEK WITH A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST AND RIDGING IN THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LEAD TO DRY,
BUT COOL, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
DAILY HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME 30S IN THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. HIGH
BASED CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS, WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED TO CEILINGS. PATCHY FOG WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT, MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
WEST OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY. GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...RICHIE
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