094
FXUS63 KLBF 302112
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
312 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA OR GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
OSHKOSH TO BARTLETT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. HIGHS TUESDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ATTM, ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS. WITHIN THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH TWO
DISTINCT SHORTWAVE FEATURES WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THE FIRST FEATURE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE LP OF
MICHIGAN. THIS WAS PART OF A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM HUDSON
BAY SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE HAD
SPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WEST OF THIS TROUGH COMPLEX, A
SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE, WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. AS OF
MIDDAY THIS FEATURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN UTAH PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. DOWN STREAM OF THIS FEATURE, A BROAD
SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS STREAMED INTO
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WERE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CT RANGED
FROM 8 DEGREES AT VALENTINE TO 19 DEGREES AT IMPERIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH, WILL
MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT, EMERGING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE, MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE
FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP INVOF THIS MID LEVEL
LIFT LATER THIS EVENING, SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT SNOWFALL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AS FOR THE THREAT FOR
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL > 0.1 INCHES, THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92. WHEN INCREASING THIS THRESHOLD TO 1.0
INCHES, THERE IS LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF HITTING THIS
AMOUNT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THAT BEING SAID, BASED ON THE
ENSEMBLE NBM FORECAST, THE DETERMINISTIC NAM, GFS AND EC SOLNS
APPEAR OVERLY "OPTIMISTIC" ABOUT SNOWFALL TONIGHT. NO DOUBT,
GIVEN THE MID LEVEL FORCING, DECENT 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, WILL
PLAN ON LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH, WITH
POSSIBLY 1+ INCHES ALONG FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW
WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. IN THE WAKE
OF THE EXITING SYSTEM, SOME CLEARING SKIES MAY FACILITATE HIGHS
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AIR WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE H5 PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TEENS MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE
MOST PART, THIS WILL BE MAINLY A DRY FROPA WITH SOME LIMITED
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION NOTED WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
FORCING IS FOCUSED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA, AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO. THE LATEST NBM SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES HAVE VERY
LIMITED PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOST PROBABILITIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF
20-30 PERCENT FOR SNOWFALL > 0.5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FAR THE LATEST NBM POP
FORECAST HAS CHANCES CAPPED AROUND 30 PERCENT IN THE NW WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW FORECAST
QPF'S. THIS SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. WITH EXPECTED CLEARING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL REACH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR
THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S FOR SUNDAY. BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT
THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ATTM THIS APPEARS TO ONLY PRODUCE MINOR IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL THIS EVENING
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 2000 FT AGL FROM 08Z TO 12Z MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW AT THE TERMINAL BEGINNING AROUND
07Z, ENDING AROUND 14Z MONDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES MAY REACH AS
LOW AS 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO 5000 TO 9000 FT AGL. FOR
THE KVTN TERMINAL: EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1200 TO 2500 FT AGL.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING TO AROUND 8000 FT AGL.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER MONDAY MORNING WITH A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS RANGING FROM 15000 TO 20000 FT AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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