527
FXUS63 KLBF 020514
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1114 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER READINGS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. COLDER READINGS WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO 40S FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. READINGS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S
SUNDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A BROAD, POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA, SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
LIGHT SNOW, CURRENTLY EXITING SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH AXIS, WHICH HAD PUSHED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MIDDAY,
SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS PART OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FEATURE OF
NOTE WAS THE LOW SOME 700 MILES OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WAS ALSO LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON,
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WINDS WERE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AND 2 PM CT
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 29 DEGREES AT GORDON AND O'NEILL TO 37
DEGREES AT IMPERIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTH- SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT.
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONAL WITH READINGS IN THE
TEENS. ON TUESDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
FEATURE, A BROAD SHROUD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. AS FOR HIGHS, I GENERALLY FOLLOWED
GUIDANCE AND SUBTRACTED A DEGREE OR TWO AS A HEDGE AGAINST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS WITH
TONIGHT'S FORECAST PACKAGE. IF DENSE CLOUDS MATERIALIZE SOONER,
OUR HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM. AS THIS SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND
THE FRONT, THREE DISTINCT AREAS OF FAVORABLE LIFT WILL EXIST.
FIRST, THERE WILL BE SOME FAVORABLE LIFT INVOF THE PINE RIDGE
WITH NEAR SURFACE WINDS BEING NORTHWESTERLY. ALREADY THE
NATIONAL WPC QPF FORECAST HAS LATCHED ONTO THIS NOTION AND
DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN
CHERRY COUNTY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS. AREA TWO WILL ENCOMPASS THE FRONT
RANGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. THIS AREA
WILL SEE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS THE ARCTIC FRONT BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST FROM NEBRASKA PROMOTING GOOD UPSLOPE. ALOFT, A JET
STREAK ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH, WILL
ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY. AREA 3 MAY BE JUST OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC NAM SOLN, ANOTHER BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS FORCED SNOW IS DEPICTED FROM AROUND MCCOOK TO
LINCOLN ON WEDNESDAY. ATTM, THIS BAND AND MODEL SOLUTION HAS NO
SUPPORT FROM THE DETERMINISTIC EC AND GFS SOLNS. ALSO, THE NBM
HAS A ZERO PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW FOR LOCATIONS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO.
THE LATEST NBM POP FORECAST SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL WITH POPS
MAINLY CONFINED OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IF THE MODELS DO TREND TOWARD THE NAM SOLN, SOME DECENT
CHANGES WILL HAVE TO BE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY, THEY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 20S THANKS TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER AND THE ARCTIC FRONT BEING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST SOT AND EFI PRODUCT
FROM THE EC INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A DECENT COLD EVENT OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA COULD
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER WEST,
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO -5 IN THE NORTHEAST, TO AROUND 10
DEGREES IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH, LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONAL ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 40S FOR FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR SUNDAY. THE LATEST EC AND GFS
SOLNS DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY.
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL EC SOLN. HOWEVER IF THE
MODELS DO TREND MORE TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL GFS FROM THIS
MORNING, THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. STAY TUNED ON THIS ONE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BECOME OVERCAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY EVENING, MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE
IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BEHIND A CLOD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS INCLUDES THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN
NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...ROBERG
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