223
FXUS63 KLBF 020935
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A DRY DAYTIME TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING
SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S, ROUGHLY 10-
20F BELOW NORMAL, FOLLOWED BY SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THURSDAY MORNING.
- LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TRENDING MUCH
WARMER BY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LARGELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE DIVIDING LINE FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE ELONGATED TROUGHING
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST. IN VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH AXIS, EXPANSIVE LOW
STRATUS WAS PREVALENT ON GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER AND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA, HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 09Z (3AM CST) WERE IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGIT VALUES IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TODAY...EXPECTING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. HEIGHT
RISES AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST
SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL GREATER FORCING ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT.
AREA OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LINGERING SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH VALUES WERE LIMITED TO AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE TRICKY TODAY GIVEN
RESIDUAL SNOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THAT SAID, GIVEN
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A SLIGHT BOOST TO FORECAST H85
TEMPERATURES, DID INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THE LIGHT SNOWPACK AREAS
(< 1") BUT HELD CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE. TO GET
THIS, UTILIZED A BLEND OF NBM/MET/MAV GUIDANCE THE LOWERED IN SELECT
AREAS USING RAPTL. THE RESULT IS MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ALL SNOW
SHOULD BE MELTED AWAY TODAY AND GIVEN THE CLOUDS, BELIEVE THIS IS
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE. EVEN SO, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY LOSE
THEIR LINGERING SNOW WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND
EAST, FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FORCING IS SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS, HOWEVER, INCREASING CONVERGENCE/FGEN
WITH SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT INVOF THE BLACK
HILLS/PINE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM. THIS
WILL INITIALLY ARRIVE ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
A SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH THROUGH THE SANDHILLS. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE: WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A NEAR TO FULLY SUB-FREEZING PROFILE, ICE NUCLEI APPEAR TO
LAG INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SATURATION A BIT. THUS A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE (FZDZ) PRIOR TO
A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. HREF OUTPUT GENERALLY ALIGNS WITH THIS
THINKING WHERE PROBABILITIES OF FZDZ BEING THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE REACH NEARLY 30% THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, QPF IS ON THE
ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF MEASURABLE MOISTURE WERE TO OCCUR. THIS
SUGGESTS LIMITED IF ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
GOING FORWARD AND AS IT STANDS NOW, BELIEVE AT LEAST ISOLATED SLICK
SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE FAVORING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
LOW 20S BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
CALENDAR DAY THANKS TO THE CLEARING COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY ATYPICAL BUT NOT UNHEARD OF DAY IS SET TO
UNFOLD. STRONG COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CLEAR IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG CAA
THROUGH THE DAY UNDER CLOUD SKIES. BECAUSE OF THIS, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL TREND WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND STEADILY FALLING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MEANS LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S AROUND
MIDDAY FALLING TO THE TEENS AND 20S RESPECTIVELY BY MID-AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS EARLY AROUND 25 MPH. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILLS
HOLDING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL DAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE TEENS BUT EVEN
SO IT'LL CERTAINLY BE A RAW DAY AND FOLKS NEEDING TO SPEND EXTENDED
PERIODS OUTDOORS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE COLD.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. EXTENDED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TROUGHING WILL
STRETCH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH HEIGHT RISES BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY LATE THURSDAY. AMPLIFIED FLOW UPSTREAM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW TRACKING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE RESULTING AIRMASS
LARGELY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, EXPECTING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS
A RESULT. THIS MEANS UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S EACH DAY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK ANOTHER CHILL TO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES FOR THE WEEKEND. IT'S AROUND THIS TIME WE COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS OUR WEST
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES LARGELY FAVOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT BUT ENSEMBLE QPF PROBABILITIES PAINT ONLY 50-70% POTENTIAL
OF EXCEEDING 0.01" FOR ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD IN THE LOCAL AREA. ALL
THIS TO SAY, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND
HAVE LIMITED IF ANY IMPACTS. MORE PROMINENT HEIGHT RISES RETURN BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, QUICKLY ENDING ANY WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN PAINTING MODERATELY STRONG RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO BEGIN THE WEEK WITH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, THE RESULT WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY WARM FOR MIDDLE DECEMBER: 40S AND 50S OR NEARLY 10-
15F ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGING WILL RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCE PUSH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THOUGH FOR NOW
TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND TUESDAY. EVEN SO, BOTH
EPS/GEFS GUIDANCE ADVERTISE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT INCREASES IN QPF
PROBABILITIES. GIVEN THIS, SOME WINTRY WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FAVORING OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH SIGNALS SUGGEST ONLY LIGHT
QPF AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON DEC 1 2025
EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BECOME OVERCAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY EVENING, MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE
IN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BEHIND A CLOD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS INCLUDES THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN
NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...ROBERG
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