899
FXUS63 KLBF 031720
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1120 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FALLING TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
COLD WEDNESDAY AS WIND CHILLS HOLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
MIDDLE TEENS FOR MOST.
- COLD CONTINUES THURSDAY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS AND
WIND CHILLS FALLING TO AS LOW AS TEN BELOW ZERO EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83.
- OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT CHANCES (< 25%) THIS WEEKEND, THE FORECAST
IS LARGELY DRY WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (~10F+) EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, EXTENSIVE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS APPARENT AHEAD OF THE PARENT MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION INVOF THE COLORADO/UTAH/WYOMING TRIPLE POINT. AT THE
SURFACE, SURFACE FLOW CONTINUED TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
PROGRESSING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER
20S TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARMER OF THESE VALUES WERE
OCCURRING UNDER THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER AND THUS THE THREAT FOR
WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIMITED AS A RESULT. A FEW INSTANCES
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
BORDER, BUT OVERALL THE EXPANSE AND MAGNITUDE HAVE BEEN LESS THAN
EXPECTED AND CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS
GOING FORWARD CONTINUES TO WANE.
TODAY... PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FAIRLY HARD TO
COME BY AS CIGS HAVE FAILED TO LOWER AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WHILE
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW BUT POSSIBLY A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE, MOST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY. HREF PROBABILITIES HAVE FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY AS A
RESULT, OUTSIDE OF THE PINE RIDGE WHERE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS IS TRACED EASIER VIA TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BUT
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO GLANCE THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES LIKELY
REACHING THEIR DAILY MAX EARLY THIS MORNING AND STEADILY FALLING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MAY STILL MANAGE A SMALL
DIURNAL BUMP BUT OVERALL THIS IS LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL. BY MIDDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW THEIR LARGEST RANGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH LOWER 30S TO UPPER TEENS BUT QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 20S AND
EVEN LOWER TEENS BY LATE AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STEADY NORTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH, EXPECTING A VERY RAW
DAY. FACTORING IN THE WINDS, FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY TO
EXCEED THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH TEENS AND
LOW 20S ELSEWHERE. FOLKS SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF THE COLD AND TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF OUT FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH AND
SHOULD BE CENTERED AROUND THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY JUST PRIOR TO
DAWN THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND KEEP THE COLDEST AIR TO THE EAST.
EVEN SO, FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER TEENS IN THE WEST TO NEAR 0F
IN OUR EAST. THOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS TYPICAL FOR NEARBY HIGH
PRESSURE, WIND CHILLS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO FALL BELOW ZERO EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND -10F CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY
281 CORRIDOR. THIS FALLS SHORT OF NEEDING ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINE
(-20F OR COLDER AIR TEMP/WIND CHILL) SO BARRING DRASTIC CHANGES,
DON'T FORESEE THIS AS A NEED LATER ON. STILL THOUGH, BEING SOME OF
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH MUCH COLDER IMMEDIATELY TO THE
EAST, FOLKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY IF TRAVELING IN THE AREA FURTHER
EAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL WEAKEN AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM PHASES BACK INTO THE FLOW. ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. LOCALLY,
GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT
FALLS ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND. A FEW WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL GLANCE
THE AREA AS A RESULT, INTRODUCING SOME LOW-END POPS (< 25%) IN
SELECT AREAS. EVEN SO, POPS HAVE CERTAINLY DECREASED SINCE 24 HOURS
AGO AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THIS TIME AND WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S, WILL LIKELY SEE ANY THREAT
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...RIDGING UPSTREAM BEINGS TO AMPLIFY BY EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THIS INTRODUCES FAIRLY STRONG HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL FALL OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE NBM SHOWS A FAIRLY STEADY CLIMB OF
MEDIAN AND INNER-QUARTILE MAXT VALUES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AND IT'S THIS PERIOD THAT IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE
FORECAST. BOTH LBF AND VTN APPEAR LIKELY TO EXCEED THE 75TH
PERCENTILE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE CLIMATOLOGIES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. GIVEN HOW TEMPERATURES FARED TUESDAY, BELIEVE WE SHOULD SEE
FURTHER INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS WITH BOTH WARMER H85
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES DO
FALL A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW, THE BRUNT
OF THIS COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH AND AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS PERSISTS INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION, SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.
BY THIS EVENING, SNOW AND LOW STRATUS BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA,
AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15KTS. WINDS THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, AT 5 TO 10KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...BROWN
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