516
FXUS63 KLBF 032141
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ENDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S RETURNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- A SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, AND COULD BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
CURRENTLY, LIGHT SNOW IS GRADUALLY WANING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF I-
80, WITH THE THREAT FOR EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS QUICKLY ENDING. AN
ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN ITS WAKE.
AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTHWARDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA BY TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. THIS, COMBINED WITH WEAKENING WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATION COOLING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR ALL, WITH AREAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA APPROACHING 0 BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS LIKELY SAVES THE
AREA FROM WIDESPREAD LOWS NEAR/JUST BELOW ZERO, WITH THE WEAK
WARM ADVECTION BOOSTING LOWS SLIGHTLY. STILL, THE COMBINATION OF
COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO EAST OF HWY 83 TOMORROW MORNING.
BY TOMORROW, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHING
INTERNATIONAL FALLS BY TOMORROW EVENING. A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH
WILL EJECT EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL SHUNT THE SHALLOW,
COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF I-80 FROM TODAY SHOULD MELT AMID
THE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
SIMILAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY, AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES
ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. PERSISTENT WEST-NORTWEST WINDS AGAIN
PROMOTES HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. BY SATURDAY, UPPER TROUGHING CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT
SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN WY/CO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
TIME. AS THIS LOW EJECTS SOUTHEAST, THIS COULD LEAD TO A THREAT FOR
LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
REMAINS AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF SURFACE FEATURES, AND
WHERE SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED. STILL, ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARDS AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW (~0.5-1.0") FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 2 SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
BROAD AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ESTABLISHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUGGESTING A RETURN OF DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. SIGNALS ALSO EXIST FOR MUCH WARMER LOW LEVEL
AIR TO BE IN PLACE, AND BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS PERSISTS INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION, SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.
BY THIS EVENING, SNOW AND LOW STRATUS BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA,
AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15KTS. WINDS THEN
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, AT 5 TO 10KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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