962
FXUS63 KLBF 042100
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
300 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S.
- A SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY, AND COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- AFTER A COLD DAY SUNDAY (HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S), ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN UPPER
40S TO 50S).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
CURRENTLY, LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST, MIGRATING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. A SURFACE
LOW, CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS MANITOBA, WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN ITS WAKE SHOULD ELIMINATE A THREAT FOR
FOG TOMORROW MORNING, AND ALSO KEEPS LOWS IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. THIS LEADS TO INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS THE
AREA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE ROCKIES TOMORROW NIGHT,
LEADING TO INCREASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE, SOUTH WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR AND AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS LEADS TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT, AND SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EAST OF HWY 183 AND NORTH OF HWY 91 MAY SEE A "GLANCING
BLOW", WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION (0.5-1.0") POSSIBLE.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT AMOUNTS, ANY SNOW LOOKS TO FALL IN A VERY
TIGHT WINDOW, WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING OFF TO THE EAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY, AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAY'S SYSTEM. THAT SAID, GUIDANCE IS IN POOR CONSENSUS WITH
RESPECT TO THIS, AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ALOFT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING WARM ADVECTION, AND BOOST HIGHS BACK WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S. THIS WOULD BE AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, AND A WELCOMED REPRIEVE FROM RECENT
COLD TEMPERATURES. THE MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER, AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
30KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT, AT 10 TO
15KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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