564
FXUS63 KLBF 241134
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
534 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGHS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
- COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A SHARP COOLDOWN
ON SUNDAY. AFTER HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S AND MIDDLE
50S, SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S FOR MONDAY WITH MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S FOR TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN TEXAS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. EAST OF THE RIDGE, AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ORIENTED ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER AND EXTENDED SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WEST OF THE
RIDGE, PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OFF THE CENTRAL
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE TO APPROXIMATELY 1000 MILES OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
TONIGHT, A BROAD PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDED EAST OF THE TROUGH
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT,
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. FURTHER EAST, A DECENT PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. LOW CLOUDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MOISTURE HAD BEGUN TO PUSH INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WITH LOW CEILINGS NOTED AT HEBRON AND
BEATRICE. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND 2 AM CT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 30
DEGREES AT NORTH PLATTE TO 42 DEGREES AT GORDON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLNS TONIGHT LIFT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE JUST OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, SO THE THREAT FOR FOG APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. AS
FOR HIGHS TODAY, THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD WIDESPREAD 70S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST NBM CAME IN COOLER TODAY
AND THIS COOLER TREND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MET AND
MAV GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL, ALSO AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE
ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDY COVER PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID, I DID TREND
DOWN TEMPS TOWARD THE NBM GUIDANCE, BUT NOT 100% TOWARD THESE
HIGHS. I DID BLEND IN SOME MET GUIDANCE WHICH PRESERVED THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA (BETTER CHANCES HERE
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON). EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURE
REDUCTIONS, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 62, 59,
60, AND 67 FOR NORTH PLATTE, VALENTINE, BROKEN BOW AND IMPERIAL
RESPECTIVELY. THE FORECAST HIGHS WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE 72, 67,
70 AND 73 FOR NORTH PLATTE, VALENTINE, BROKEN BOW AND IMPERIAL,
WHICH WILL SHATTER RECORDS FOR THESE 4 LOCATIONS. TONIGHT, A
WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT WILL LIFT WEST FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT
ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW TO BURWELL AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM12 AND 00Z HRRR SURFACE VISBY AND BL
RH PRODUCTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST
CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA, THE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
END UP PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST SEEMED TO BE TOO
COOL FOR HIGHS THURSDAY-PROBABLY A BY-PRODUCT OF CLOUD COVER,
AND WAS WELL BELOW THE MET AND MAV STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY WERE A BLEND OF NBM WITH THE WARMER MET
GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTED IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST, TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST. ATTM, FORECAST HIGHS
FOR THURSDAY, ARE JUST BELOW DAILY RECORDS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE, WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, ALLOWING A SURFACE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO GOOD DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND BETTER
MIXING POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. H85 TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOWER TEENS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RESULTANT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
FRIDAY AND (RECORD HIGHS) ARE AS FOLLOWS: NORTH PLATTE
67(RECORD HIGH 66), VALENTINE 65(RECORD HIGH 60), BROKEN BOW
67(RECORD HIGH 64), IMPERIAL 67(RECORD HIGH 66). A NORTHERN
STREAM H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE, HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A SHARP COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY THANKS TO AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHEAST, TO THE
MIDDLE 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES MONDAY,
REBOUNDING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
EXPECT BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL TO
PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID
EVENING HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING BROKEN LATER TONIGHT. SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE
FROM KANW TO KBBW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ATTM, LOW CEILINGS AND
VISBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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