688
FXUS63 KLBF 251145
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR VALENTINE,
NORTH PLATTE AND IMPERIAL.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR VALENTINE,
NORTH PLATTE, IMPERIAL AND BROKEN BOW.
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WARMUP MONDAY THROUGH NEW YEARS EVE.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF.
RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH OF THIS FEATURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH-
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW EXTENDED
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE TONIGHT WAS THE DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY, A CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 MILES OFF
THE COAST OF OREGON. A TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE WITH ITS BASE APPROXIMATELY 700 MILES WEST OF THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN. OVERNIGHT, A SHIELD OF FOG WAS PRESENT ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SPENCER TO ATKINSON, TO BURWELL.
FURTHER WEST, SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PRESENT
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS WERE VERY LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM CT RANGED FROM 28 DEGREES AT NORTH
PLATTE TO 37 DEGREES AT GORDON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR THIS MORNING: THE HRRR AND HIRES NAM TONIGHT HAVE HAD A
GOOD HANDLE OF THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FOG. BOTH
SOLUTIONS PUSH THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS AS FAR WEST AS
HIGHWAY 183 THIS MORNING, BEFORE DISSIPATING IT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z FOR BOYD, HOLT, GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES. WILL
ASSESS THE PROGRESSION OF FOG NEAR FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME FOR
ANY NECESSARY EXPANSION WEST INTO POSSIBLY CUSTER, LOUP, ROCK
AND KEYA PAHA COUNTIES. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER VERY WARM
DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. EAST OF THIS ROUTE,
HAVE LIMITED HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S IN THE
ANTICIPATION OF FOG PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY. FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY, UTILIZED A 2/3RD BLEND OF THE 50TH%
OF NBM AND 1/3RD BLEND OF THE 75%ILE OF THE NBM. THIS PRESERVED
THE COOLER HIGHS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
BROUGHT THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE IN LINE
WITH THE STATISTICAL MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. THAT BEING SAID,
FORECAST HIGHS AND (RECORD HIGHS) FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS:
NORTH PLATTE 65(RECORD HIGH 65), VALENTINE 70(RECORD HIGH 65),
BROKEN BOW 59(RECORD HIGH 67) AND IMPERIAL 67(RECORD HIGH 67). A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE, WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO
THE WEST FOR TONIGHT, ELIMINATING THE THREAT FOR FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO AROUND 40. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON'S. WITH
FOG EXPECTED TO BE ABSENT IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING, MORE
WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 60S ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
LATEST NBM FORECAST GIVES A 2-4 DEGREE BOOST IN HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE LATEST FORECAST. THE NBM FORECAST HOWEVER DOES UNDERCUT THE
MET AND MAV NUMBERS SLIGHTLY. AS FOR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY, THEY
ARE 66, 60, 64, AND 66 RESPECTIVELY FOR NORTH PLATTE, VALENTINE,
BROKEN BOW AND IMPERIAL RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS
67, 65, 67 AND 66 FOR THESE SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY.
BY SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WILL SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN
WEST COAST TROUGH, AND BEGIN TO TRACK EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT,
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA WILL BE CO- LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF
POST FRONTAL MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, IT IS
TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST GIVES A 40%
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH (MEASURABLE) SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. THE LATEST NBM POPS HAVE INCREASED WITH TONIGHT'S
RUN AND ARE NOW LOW CHANCE (~30%). HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COLD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGING WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 30S, WITH 40S EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER 1SM AND CEILINGS UNDER 300
FT AGL ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BASSETT TO
ANSLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING. WEST OF THIS LINE, INCLUDING THE
KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS, MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
20000 TO 25000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ007-010-028-029.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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