300
FXUS63 KLBF 260531
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH WARM
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
- SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
SATURDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM THROUGHOUT THE REGION. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 10 TO 16 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
SURFACE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL
TO BREAK SOME MORE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS RETURNS ON FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY AT VALENTINE AND BROKEN BOW WHERE RECORDS CURRENTLY STAND
AT 60 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY AND FORECASTED HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. NORTH PLATTE AND IMPERIAL COULD ALSO SEE NEW RECORDS OR
AT LEAST TIE THE RECORDS AS THE CURRENT RECORD IS 66 FOR BOTH SITES.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN MOST IF NOT ALL SITES REACHING AT LEAST
THE OLD RECORD AS THE CURRENT TREND HAS BEEN WARMER THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST EFI AND SOT GRAPHICS SHOW A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES OCCURRING ON FRIDAY
LEADING TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THESE ABOVE NORMAL WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST
PROBABILITIES EVEN HINT AT THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING OVER 70 DEGREES
IS NEAR 50 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. WHILE THIS
ISN'T AN EXTREMELY HIGH PROBABILITY, THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SOT/EFI FORECAST, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS MAY INCREASE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE
TOMORROW.
FOR SATURDAY, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ENTER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY. THIS COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S WEST OF A LINE FROM OGALLALA TO BUTTE TO THE LOW
60S EAST OF THIS LINE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
A PATTERN CHANGE RETURNS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS DROPPING AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
BUT AT THIS TIME, IT IS EXPECTED START OFF AS RAIN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AROUND 6PM CT /5PM MT/. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING, PRECIP
TYPE WILL SWITCH OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING COMPLETELY
TO SNOW. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND PINE RIDGE REGION WHERE COLD AIR WILL HAVE THE LONGEST
AFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE -8 TO -
16 C RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK
BELOW NORMAL (LOW 40S) ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW
20S ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH OF I-80.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING QUICKLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN US KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NORTHWESTERLY LLWS
PERSISTS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, ENDING AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY.
WINDS REMAIN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, AT 10KTS
OR LESS. WINDS THEN BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESETERLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AT 10 TO 15KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...BROWN
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