876
FXUS63 KLBF 272118
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IN ADDITION TO HARSHLY COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- STRONG WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 50 MPH, POSING A THREAT FOR
BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ON EAST-WEST ROUTES SUNDAY.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF 2026.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS APPARENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO
EMANATE OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S EVEN
UNDER SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER. WINDS GENERALLY REMAINED
LIGHT AND THIS PRECLUDED GREATER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH SPEEDS
FAILING TO REACH 20 MPH FOR ANY SINGLE OBSERVATION POINT IN THE
LOCAL AREA. LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING, LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION, CONTINUES TO SETTLE EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.
FOR TONIGHT...TONIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FOLLOW THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
TRACK OF THE H5 TROUGH WITH REINFORCING STRONG 1035+ HPA CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STRONG
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ALREADY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY
FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS OF MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS IS
THE AIRMASS AND FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. TIMING IS
APPROXIMATE, AROUND 10PM TO 2AM CST SUNDAY FOR COMPLETE PASSAGE
THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS PASSAGE WILL BE SIGNALED BY A FLIP TO
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GUSTS QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE 35 MPH.
STRONG FORCING VIA MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL SATURATE THE PROFILE
AND LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. AT THIS
TIME, THE ONLY LIMITATION ON SNOW WILL BE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN FALL AS DGZ SATURATION APPEARS TO BE OPTIMAL IN
THE LEAD-UP AND DURING THE PERIOD OF GREATEST FORCING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A CLEAN TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND AS TEMPERATURES
FALL, WILL HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF LINGERING WET SURFACES TO FREEZE
UP. WHILE SNOW INTENSITY COULD BE MODERATE (UP TO 0.50"/HOUR),
DURATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 HOURS TOTAL
GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RESULT IS MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN 1" OF SNOWFALL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS FROM
THE SANDHILLS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA POTENTIALLY SEEING 1-2"
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. TEMPERATURES AS MENTIONED WILL QUICKLY
FALL AS STRONG CAA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. MANY HI-RESOLUTION NWP
SOLUTIONS DEPICT TEMPERATURE FALLS OF 2-3F PER HOUR IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN WHAT WE'VE
EXPERIENCED RECENTLY, AND FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG CAA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LARGELY BE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS BY
DAYBREAK, LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH
MIDDAY. THE SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL DRIVE STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS THOUGH
WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. THE IMPACTS FROM
THIS WILL BE TWO FOLD: 1) HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK
WITH VALUES ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S AND WIND CHILLS
LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SUB-ZERO ALL DAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
AND 2) THE STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO AT LEAST
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW FROM THE RECENT SNOWFALL. WHILE BOTH ARE
NOTABLE IN THEIR OWN RIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE COLD AND
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT FALL FROM VALUES SEEN FRIDAY/SATURDAY, AM
CONCERNED ABOUT FOLKS BEING CAUGHT OFF GUARD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE FOR FOLKS MAKING THE POST-HOLIDAY RETURN TRAVEL WHO MAY NOT
HAVE PLANNED FOR THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD FORECAST. CAUTION IS ADVISED
TO THOSE TRAVELING SUNDAY BOTH WITH THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SHARPLY
SUNDAY EVENING AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL THREATEN SUB-ZERO LOWS.
FACTORING IN THE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS, BELIEVE WIND CHILLS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. WHETHER THE REACH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (-20F AIR OR WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES)
REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL AGAIN EMERGE FOR THE END OF 2025 AND
START OF 2026 ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP TROUGHING WILL SETTLE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AROUND MONDAY WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE WEST
COAST. ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BUT
OVERALL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH A RETURN TO 20S/30S
MONDAY, AND 40S/50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE HUDSON BAY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
SHORTWAVES ROTATING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE SOUTH
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT
WILL WORK IN ON THURSDAY. HOW FAR WEST THIS COLDER AIR MAKES IT
REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AND EXPLAINS THE LARGE NBM INNER-
QUARTILE SPREAD IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. VALUES RANGE
FROM LOWER 30S TO UPPER 50S SO PRECISE VALUES ELUDE US FOR NOW.
OVERALL THOUGH, ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT PAINTING LOWER
50S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 30S NORTHEAST AND THIS IS WHAT THE NBM
POPULATED FORECAST PRODUCED. THIS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD SNAP
APPEARS LIMITED IN SCOPE WITH SMALLER SPREADS AND 25TH PERCENTILE
VALUES HOVERING AROUND 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST
IS LARGELY DRY HEADING INTO 2026 AND ENSEMBLES HINT AT LITTLE TO
SUGGEST GREATER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS UNTIL PERHAPS THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGING LOWERED CEILINGS, STRONG WINDS, AND THE THREAT FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT.
TIMING OF ARRIVAL FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO
2AM CST, WITH A QUICK INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS AND DEGRADED FLIGHT
RULES. BELIEVE AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY, LARGELY OWING TO LOW CIGS AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITHIN -SN. WHILE SOME -RA IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO -SN,
BELIEVE THIS WILL MISS BOTH TERMINALS AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO
OMIT MENTION. GIVEN STRONG WINDS GUSTING AROUND 40 KNOTS, CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING BEYOND THE END OF ACTIVE
SNOWFALL, BUT THIS WILL HINGE ON RESULTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page