476
FXUS63 KLBF 290510
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1110 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIND
CHILL READINGS FALLING INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
RANGE, PROMPTING COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
- TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY MONDAY
BUT RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SHUFFLE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM
MUCH TODAY, UNDERCUTTING MUCH OF THE COLDER NWP OUTPUTS, THANKS TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA). THIS HAS RESULTED IN AFTERNOON
READINGS ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MIDDLE
20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF 1930Z (0130PM CST). THE CAA HAS
HELPED PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER A PEAK
CLOSER TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING, MAGNITUDES HAVE GENERALLY SETTLES IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. COMBINED WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANY LOCATIONS HAVE FAILED TO REACH POSITIVE
VALUES ON WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS WE HEAD
INTO TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT...THE CUTOFF H5 LOW WILL CROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE LOW CENTER
PASSES OVER ONL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT STRAY FLURRIES FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 BUT WITH FAIRLY ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS
SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CAA WILL WANE AS THE CORE OF COLD AIR
SHIFTS TO THE EAST, STRONG FLOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A FAIRLY BREEZY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO DECOUPLING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT WITH 30+ KNOT FLOW ROUGHLY 1KFT AGL.
LEANED HEAVILY ON NBM/NAM/RAP GUIDANCE FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH
PRODUCES 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE,
STRONGEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. HREF PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 15 MPH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE NEARLY 100% FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 UNTIL
09-10Z (3-4AM CST) WITH A SLOW DECREASE WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER.
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS USING NBM 25TH PLUS MET GUIDANCE, WHICH SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING THIS SHORT COLD SNAP THE BEST. THIS PRODUCED VALUES
AROUND -5 TO 5F FOR THE SANDHILLS AND CLOSER TO 5-10F FOR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THESE COLDER LOWS AND THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
OVERNIGHT INCREASES CONCERNS FOR COLD WIND CHILLS. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR -25 TO -20F FOR MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND AS A RESULT, HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY. FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
TAKE ADEQUATE PRECAUTIONS IF NECESSARY TO BE OUT IN THEM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
OVERALL, DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD INTO 2026.
BEHIND THE NOW DEPARTED TROUGH, STRONG HEIGHT RISES WILL FILL IN
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED AS
AMPLIFIED RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THOUGH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR THE REGION, HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL NOSE IN BRINGING WITH IT MILD
AIR AND REPEATED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERNS. THIS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S EAST TO WEST
ON MONDAY BUT CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO THE 40S AND 50S EACH DAY TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THURSDAY WHERE A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY INVADE NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND HOLD
READINGS INTO THE 30S. EVEN SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE, ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE TIED TO PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WHICH WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN MISSOURI VALLEY INTO IOWA. THE WARMTH
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BODE FAVORABLE FOR NEW YEAR'S ACTIVITIES
THOUGH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE TRADE-OFF THOUGH
WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL ANY PARTICULAR DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXIT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS OF 20
TO 30KTS EXPECTED. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15KTS EXPECTED.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NEZ004>010-023>029-035>037-094.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...BROWN
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