626
FXUS63 KLBF 051748
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK, WITH DAILY
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
- A SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING A
RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
- THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW (20-30%) IN ANY IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN ALOFT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE, PROGGED TO CROSS INTO THE PLAINS
LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON, AMID PERSISTENT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW SLIDING INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
SUNDAY'S HIGHS. THIS IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE INCREASED HIGH
CLOUDINESS, AS H85 TEMPERATURES STILL EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE
TODAY. WINDS DO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 MILES PER HOUR EXPECTED WEST OF HWY 83. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
AND HUMIDITY HIGHER TODAY VERSUS SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT, THOUGH THESE LOOK TO STAY OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT,
AND WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EVEN SHOULD THEY GET AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
A NEAR IDENTICAL DAY IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY, WITH THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE BEING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN, AN OVERLAP OF GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LOWERING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS,
PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 83.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
ONE MORE MILD DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH THE AREA STILL
IN THE PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME. WINDS AGAIN STRENGTHEN
FROM THE WEST, AND YET ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY EJECT OUT OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA, REACHING THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW EJECTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY MORNING, WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HOLDS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S,
BRINGING A RETURN OF MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EJECT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE MORE
IMPACTFUL OF THESE TWO UPPER LOWS WILL BEGIN TO EJECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING, REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. UNCERTAINTY STILL LINGERS WITH RESPECT TO HOW THIS UPPER
LOW EVOLVES, AND THIS WILL HAVE DRASTIC IMPACTS ON WHAT CAN BE
EXPECTED LOCALLY. STILL, WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE, P-TYPES
WILL LIKELY BE SNOW, WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN THE COLD SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM. AS OF NOW, THE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE
PRIMARY FGEN FORCING (AND AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW) REMAINING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS. THIS OF COURSE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY, WITH THE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DRIVING ANY THREATS
LOCALLY.
THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED. THE WARMER DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME
RETURNS BY SUNDAY, SHUNTING THE COLD AIR OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
BRINGS A RETURN OF MILD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AS WE END THE
WEEKEND HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING
SOME TONIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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