835
FXUS63 KLBF 060541
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO
ABOVE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
A COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE IS ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGH CLOUD
COVER HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE 50S. COULD
SEE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER RECORD OR TWO FALLING YET THIS
AFTERNOON.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS, BUT ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER. DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE RUNNING RIGHT NEAR THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, HOWEVER DID BOOST HIGHS
SOME AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THIS PUSHES SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE LOWER 60S, WITH MID TO UPPER
50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE
AN ISSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS INTO WESTERN
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 17% ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN
FACT, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD SEE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A
TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO,
WILL QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, MORE ENERGY WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD CARVING OUT AN
UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE CROSSED THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AN AREA OF MID-
LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPS POST-FRONTAL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
APPEARS A SHORT WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD SHUNTING WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE IS
EAST OF THE AREA.
OVERALL THE ENSEMBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS. P90 DATA FROM THE ENS SHOWS AROUND 3-3.5 INCHES MAX WITH THE
GFS MUCH LESS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THE THREAT FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT FOR NOW
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LIMITED IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA.
COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN RIDGING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY SUNDAY WHICH SHUNTS THE COLDER AIR
EASTWARD AND A RAPID RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE
DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KULIK
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