377
FXUS63 KLBF 060935
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND BREEZY WEST WINDS
PERSIST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- A STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BRINGING A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A THREAT FOR
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
- A RETURN OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 40S IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MILES PER HOUR.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT YET ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON, WITH THE PERSISTENT
WESTERLY WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS, AND
THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER DESPITE AMPLE DIURNAL MIXING
AGAIN TODAY. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES, WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-80. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL PUSH HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S THIS AFTERNOON, AND INCREASE FIRE
CONCERNS. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
A BOOST IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT PUSHES H85 TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE CLIMO FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TRANSLATES
TO HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
AGAIN DROPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S, AND THIS OVERLAPS
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. YET AGAIN, ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EJECT EAST FROM
NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA, REACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS, A DEFORMATION AXIS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI, THE AREA COULD RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF THIS
DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIPITATION. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA PRIOR TO
THIS LOW QUICKLY EXITING BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. TOTAL QPF LOOK TO
REMAIN LIGHT (~0.10" OR LESS) AND THIS POINTS TOWARDS LIMITED
IMPACTS LOCALLY. A SECOND UPPER LOW THEN BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY MORNING, CROSSING KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A SECOND GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. REGARDLESS, THIS LOOKS TO BE
OF LITTLE IMPACT, THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
UPPER RIDGING THEN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS WE
HEAD INTO LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BRIEFLY ESTABLISHES
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ESTABLISHES BY SUNDAY, POINTING
TOWARDS A QUICK RETURN OF MILD TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA. THESE
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS COULD SPELL THE RETURN OF FIRE CONCERNS, AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED BEFORE
DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...KULIK
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