621
FXUS63 KLBF 062155
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
355 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
BRINGING WITH IT COOLER AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
- BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL
VALUES WITH DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN STREAM JET NOSES INTO THE REGION.
BENEATH THE ZONAL FLOW, A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITS OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
LOCAL WEATHER BY LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY, IT RESIDES UNDER ZONAL FLOW
WITH MILD LOW TO MID-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. AFTERNOON UPPER-AIR RAOB
FROM LBF RETURNED A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE OF 0.21" WHICH
IS NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE CALENDAR DAY ACCORDING TO SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. MEANWHILE THE OBSERVED H85 TEMPERATURE OF 4.8C
WAS CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE IN THE SAME CLIMATOLOGY. THIS
PAINTS ANOTHER DRY, MILD DAY ACROSS THE REGION WHICH HAS SPARKED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE RANGED FROM THE LOWER
50S FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE
SAME AREAS.
TONIGHT...STEADY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS WEST TO
EAST AND WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HAVE BOOSTED WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT WITH HREF PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 25 MPH
GUSTS REMAINING IN THE 60-90% RANGE NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY. WITH THE PERSISTENT WINDS AND DRY AIR, HAVE ALSO BOOSTED
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, NAMELY THE MAV WITH THE MET CLOSE BEHIND,
PAINTS MANY LOCATIONS FAILING TO REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. LEANED
ON THESE WITH A RAPTL BLEND TO GENERATE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
30S OVER THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO MIDDLE 20S FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
THESE LOWS WILL NEAR 15-25F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY AND
COMBINE TO LIMITED HUMIDITY RECOVERY. THE GOING FORECAST IS LIMITED
TO 50-60% THOUGH SOME SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS STILL
OPTIMISTIC. REGARDLESS, THE MESSAGE WILL BE CONTINUED FIRE CONCERNS
EVEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH DRY AIR
CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS, RELIED HEAVILY ON
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHT RAPTL BLEND WHICH PAINTS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 60S FOR ALL WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA SITES. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN SIMILAR H85 TEMPERATURES DAY-OVER-DAY AND
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS. SEE LITTLE REASON WE CAN'T ADD AT
LEAST 2-4F TO ALL SITES ACROSS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY'S HIGHS. WITH
DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO SETTLE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S, BELIEVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS ARE SET TO FALL BELOW 25% AND PERHAPS
CLOSER TO 15% ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE STRONG
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFERS SHOULD EQUAL 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IN
REACHING SUB 15% HUMIDITY AND 25+ MPH GUSTS FOR 3 HOURS IS LOW AND
PRECLUDES HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, BUT, ANY FIRE STARTS WILL LIKELY
BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN ALONG THE NORTH OF THE PLATTE VALLEY.
WINDS QUICKLY DROP OFF FURTHER SOUTH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL INTRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN INFLUX OF COOLER AIR AS
ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT IS LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND LOWER 30S SOUTH
AND EAST. THIS ALONG WITH WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FIRE CONCERNS
TO END SWIFTLY LATE IN THE EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THAT SAID, PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS LIMITED.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PHASE INTO
THE FLOW AND A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DEEPENING LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE LEAD WAVE
LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS OF NOW, THE GREATEST UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. SIMILARLY,
ENSEMBLES PAINT THE CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEAR A DODGE CITY
TO WICHITA TO KANSAS CITY LINE. THIS KEEPS MUCH OF THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA, SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING ADVERTISED BY EPS/GEFS
PROBABILITIES. ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH EPS/NAM
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEING THE MOST OPTIMISTIC ON THIS. WHILE THE
FORECAST CONTAINS WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS, QPF IS MUCH MORE LIMITED
WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE, THEY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINTRY IMPACTS SOMEWHAT AND CONFINE MOST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TO
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO 1" ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST AND OVERALL THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MOST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE WHERE NBM SUGGESTS UP TO 60% POTENTIAL FOR EXCEEDING 1" OF
SNOW FOR THE EVENT.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTH AND
EAST, PHASING WITH A DIVING SHORTWAVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TAKING AIM ON THE GREAT
LAKES. STRONGER LIFT TO OUR EAST WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING IN
WILL LIKELY PREVENT GREATER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY REINFORCE COOLER AIR THOUGH AND KEEP US ON THE
COOLER SIDE FOR AN ADDITIONAL DAY SATURDAY. AMPLIFIED RIDGING WITH
STRONG HEIGHT RISES IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SHOULD BOLSTER TEMPERATURES QUICKLY. HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S AS A RESULT, OR NEARLY 15-20F ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-
JANUARY. WITH THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS, FIRE CONCERNS WILL AGAIN
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN BUT CERTAINTY AND MAGNITUDE OF IMPACTS WILL
LARGELY HINGE ON PRECISE TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT MOISTURE FROM
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTING
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. THIS IS LARGELY IN-LINE WITH THE LATEST
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
LEADING TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME,
BELIEVE THE CONCERNS WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO
INCLUDE THE VTN TERMINAL. SKIES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN CLEAR WITH
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
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