384
FXUS63 KLBF 071751
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1151 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COMBINATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON.
- A SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME, IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIMITED.
- A RETURN OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
TO ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ALOFT,
BROAD ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY, AS THE BROAD AND WARM
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO 60S THIS AFTERNOON, HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL AGAIN
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. THIS WILL OVERLAP INCREASING WEST
WINDS, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80. THE STRONGEST GUSTS (25-30 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 83. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS TODAY. MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED LATE MORNING, LIMITING THE OVERLAP WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THEY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS, EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FIRST OF THESE LOWS WILL EJECT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL LIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
BY THURSDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, A DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN AS RAIN, WITH COLDER AIR
FINALLY ARRIVING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A SWITCHOVER TO
SNOW WITH TIME. CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THIS
DEFORMATION BAND OCCURS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE, AND SUGGESTS MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION.
STILL, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT, AND IMPACTS LOOK
TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES OF SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH
OR GREATER MAXIMIZE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 2, THOUGH ONLY INCREASE
TO ~30-50%. THIS FIRST SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THURSDAY EVENING, WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE SECOND SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FIRST, AS THE UPPER LOW
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE FIRST, AND THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN OFF WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL
FLOW DOES TAKE ON AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80. SNOW RATES LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP IMPACTS LIMITED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEPART BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY
SATURDAY. THIS ESTABLISHES NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND POINTS TOWARDS
A RETURN OF DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY,
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LEADS TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING
BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST ON SUNDAY AND ALL BY MONDAY. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT INTO MIDWEEK,
WITH THE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW
10KFT AGL BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/LOW-END VFR
CONDITIONS AT AREA TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
THREATEN THE AREA BY LATE MORNING THOUGH LINGERING DRY LOW-LEVEL
AIR MAY INHIBIT HOW MUCH REACHES THE GROUND. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE AT VTN WHERE A DRY FORECAST PERSISTS AND
CONFIDENCE IN STARTING TIME AT LBF REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...NMJ
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