222
FXUS63 KLBF 072337
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
537 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STEADY WESTERLY WINDS VEER TO THE
NORTH BEHIND A PASSING COOL FRONT.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MINOR IMPACTS TO THE AREA VIA
LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1"
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- FOLLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A
QUICK RETURN TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ENHANCED MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC LIFTING UP
BENEATH A MORE PRONOUNCED H5 TROUGH OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA.
FURTHER NORTHWEST, A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ASHORE NEAR
PUGET SOUND. CLOSER TO HOME ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BROAD
WESTERLY FLOW WAS AGAIN DOMINATING THE WEATHER. CLOUD COVER WAS
STEADILY INCREASING OFF THE FRONT RANGE UP NORTH THROUGH THE
BIGHORNS AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. AFTERNOON HIGHS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S. WESTERLY WINDS WERE STRONG ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH. FURTHER SOUTH,
WINDS WERE QUITE WEAK WITH THE PLATTE VALLEY SERVING AS THE
APPROXIMATE BOUNDARY DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT CST WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH,
DRAWN SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. INITIALLY,
COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED BE WINDS FLIPPING TO THE NORTH WITH A STEADY
INCREASE IN SPEEDS. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND CAA WANES. TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THE DECISION
WAS MADE TO BOOST VALUES CONSIDERABLY FOR OUR SOUTH AND EAST. RELIED
HEAVILY ON SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE, NOTABLY THE HRRR/RAP, WHICH FAILED
TO FALL BELOW THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MANY OUTSIDE THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
WHERE MIDDLE 20S REMAIN POSSIBLE. THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILDER,
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS LIKELY TO BE BETTER WITH EXPECTED VALUES
REACHING THE 65-75% RANGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE SETUP WILL BREAK THE MONOTONY OF
RECENT MILD AND DRY WEATHER. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL SET UP OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS WILL BE ROUGHLY DODGE CITY TO
WICHITA UP THROUGH KANSAS CITY WITH AN APPROXIMATELY 995 HPA CENTRAL
PRESSURE. THIS FURTHER SOUTHEAST TRACK ALONG WITH THE LACK OF A
PRONOUNCED H5 LOW WILL LIMIT OVERALL IMPACTS IN THE LOCAL AREA. THAT
SAID, THE DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE CLOSE TO PASS H7 LOW WILL
NECESSITATE HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES. HAVE 55-
65% (LIKELY CATEGORICAL) POPS FOR THESE AREAS WHICH CLOSELY ALIGNS
WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE EPS/NAM SOLUTIONS. QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, LARGELY OWING TO TOP DOWN SATURATION AND THE USUAL DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIR TO OVERCOME. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 0.10" ARE
50/50 ALONG A CURTIS TO BURWELL LINE WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL EAST.
WHILE MID-LEVEL SATURATION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW, LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR WILL REQUIRE WET BULBING TO REALIZE SNOW AT THE SURFACE
EARLY ON. THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW
TRANSITION THROUGH THE DAY AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
WARM MUCH OUTSIDE THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SETTLES EAST LATE THURSDAY, A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS
MODEST HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH STRONGER
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
REINTRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES. QPF WILL
LARGELY BE LIGHT, ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST, AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT ANY NEW SNOWFALL TO A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN SPOTS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
WILL CERTAINLY BE A CHANGE FROM RECENT OBSERVED VALUES BUT STILL
REMAIN ON THE ABOVE-NORMAL SIDE.
SATURDAY...BEHIND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE, THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS AND LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS HAPPENS, A THIRD PERTURBATION WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PHASE,
ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH/H5 LOW TO FORM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW AND REINFORCING COOL AIR FOR SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE FALLEN WITH LOW 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 40S
SOUTH. WHILE SOME AFTERNOON LAPSE RATE AIDED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IN THESE OCCURRING ARE LOW AND NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND AS BROAD RIDGING IS
REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SUBSEQUENT HEIGHT RISES ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE
WESTERLY WARMING WINDS AGAIN AND FORECAST HIGHS QUICKLY RETURN TO
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD REINTRODUCE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THOUGH DETAILS ARE RELIANT ON PRECISE RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS/PLACEMENT
FROM THURSDAY-FRIDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH
STRONG RIDGING NEAR 590 DAM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A STRONG
LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK FICKLE. WHILE BOTH EPS/GEFS OUTPUTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE DIVIDING LINE IS
NARROW AND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACK WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE. LARGE
CHANGES IN CONSECUTIVE FORECASTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER ON THE LIKELY
OUTCOME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT, WITH CEILINGS
REMAINING VFR OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING, AS LOWER CEILINGS TRACK INTO
THE REGION, WILL BEGIN TO SEE LOW END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUSTY CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO LOCAL
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...RICHIE
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