220
FXUS63 KLBF 080934
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (UP TO 1") POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- ADDITIONAL ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN (FRIDAY) AND NORTHERN (SATURDAY)
NEBRASKA, THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- DRY AND MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
CURRENTLY, MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
CENTERED IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE SANDHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH ITS PASSAGE.
TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING, REACHING NORTHWEST KANSAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS TODAY, AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY THIS
EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS KANSAS, A DEFORMATION AXIS
WILL LIFT NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, THOUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EAST OF HWY 83 WILL LIKELY GET A GLANCING BLOW OF THIS
DEFORMATION BAND. PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
START AS LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM THEN BEGINS TO QUICKLY EXIT OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS
EVENING, WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. IN
ALL, ANY RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WITH TOTAL
LIQUID AMOUNTS OF <0.10" EXPECTED TODAY. ASSOCIATED SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS WELL, WITH A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 1"
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A SHARP CUTOFF IS
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS DEFORMATION BAND, WITH
MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS LIKELY REMAINING DRY TODAY.
A SECOND SYSTEM THEN LIFTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ACROSS KANSAS
AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS SECOND LOW LOOKS WEAKER THAN THE
FIRST, AND TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHEAST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE AREA. DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA, WITH ANY PRECIPITATION RESTRICTED TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
ANY AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT (A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST), WITH A
BULK OF GUIDANCE REMAINING DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY EXITS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
THE ACTIVE REGIME PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY, AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH ALOFT, SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN, WITHIN
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW FOR NOW. IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED, BUT TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES.
UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEKEND,
AND THIS BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS BRINGS A RETURN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, POINTING TO A RETURN OF
DRY CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALSO MODERATE
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A QUICK RETURN OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK,
BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MIDDLE TO
LATE WEEK. AS OF NOW, THE BULK OF THIS COLD AIR LOOKS TO STAY
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, WITH ONLY A BRIEFLY COOLER DAY
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SKIES ARE ALREADY OVERCAST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH CEILINGS
REMAINING VFR OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER,
AND ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW END VFR, THOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME PERIODS OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS
A SURFACE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS KANSAS, WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MAY
REACH PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, INCLUDING THE KLBF TERMINAL.
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND CHANGEOVER REMAINS LOW,
HOWEVER, EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS BY MID
MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION. BY
THE EVENING, WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO WIND DOWN, RETURNING BACK TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...RICHIE
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