216
FXUS63 KLBF 012125
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON MONDAY
MORNING.
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN
60S) ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER 30S IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE AREA
POSITIONED BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO GET UNDERWAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
EJECT INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES EAST INTO
THE SANDHILLS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD AREAS TO THE
EAST OF HWY 83, BRINGING WEAK MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARDS. AS THIS
OCCURS OVER TOP OF AREAS WHERE SNOWMELT (AND SOME LINGERING
SNOWPACK) OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A THREAT FOR DENSE FOG NEAR AND
EAST OF HWY 183, THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES ANY DENSE FOG
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THIS FOG WILL PERSIST INTO LATE MONDAY
MORNING, BEFORE A SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA AND
ESTABLISHES DRIER WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW, AS
DOWNSLOPE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HIGHS WEST OF HWY 183 TOMORROW CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO 50S. LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
30S FURTHER TO THE EAST. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT FALL INTO THE 20S, WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE ONLY NOTABLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THEN
ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE APEX OF
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COLDER AIRMASS INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ALOFT, THE H7 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH INCREASING COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. AS THE
THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, INCREASING FGEN
FORCING SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS TO LEND
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE, THOUGH THERE IS CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN ALOFT. THIS POINTS
TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE TO PRECIPITATION, AND THIS IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE PAINTING INCREASING SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER VALUES TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS IS MAXIMIZED ALONG
AND WEST OF HWY 61 AT THIS TIME, THOUGH TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
AS THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS BY WEDNESDAY, A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (H5 HEIGHTS
APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS) INTO LATE WEEK. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
LOCALLY, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. IN FACT, H85 TEMPS EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY
THURSDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE IT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NEAR DAILY HIGHS
IN THE 60S ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE SIGNAL FOR THE WARMEST DAYS
BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE PROLONGED DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS, A THREAT FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS
GOING TO NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE EXACT DEGREE OF THIS
THREAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTH OF WIND GUSTS EACH
AFTERNOON, AND LENDS TO LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS THEN
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS GENERALLY EAST OF HWY
83 THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, AT 10 TO 15KTS. WINDS
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, AT 5 TO 10KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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