507
FXUS63 KLBF 022106
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
306 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- WARMER AND DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND, SOUTH TO OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. WITHIN THIS TROUGH, A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. WEST OF THIS TROUGH, LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. TOPPING THIS RIDGE WERE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WHICH WERE
PRESENT OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WEST OF THIS RIDGE, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS
ANCHORED OVER MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH OF THE
FRONT INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH, WINDS
WERE NORTHERLY AND GUSTY WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 35 MPH AT
IMPERIAL. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND 2 PM CT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 38
DEGREES AT O'NEILL AND BROKEN BOW, TO 56 DEGREES AT IMPERIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THE DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO, WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT, FORCING A LOW AMPLITUDE, SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED TROUGH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS, CLIPPING NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BACK INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK MID LEVEL
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE INHERITED FORECAST DID HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAS RETAINED
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND EXPANDED SOME TO THE SOUTHWEST
BASED ON THIS MORNING'S HRRR AND HI RES NAM SOLNS. THAT BEING
SAID, QPF'S ARE ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AT BEST, THUS THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A SECOND DISTURBANCE, WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY
UPPER LEVEL LIFT ON THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN APPROACHING
JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS FOR P-TYPES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ALL
RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE MAIN
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LAPSE RATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON DO INDICATE A THREAT FOR SHOWERY
TYPE PRECIPITATION WHICH IF THE THERMAL WAS COLDER, WOULD BE
INDICATIVE OF LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. ATTM, THIS THREAT
APPEARS TO BE ANCHORED PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA AND IS NOT EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80 CORRIDOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR QPF'S THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLES
INDICATE A 40 TO 60% CHANCE OF 0.01 INCHES OF QPF FROM 6 PM TO
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE PINE RIDGE, SOUTHEAST TO
CUSTER COUNTY. WHEN THIS THRESHOLD IS INCREASED TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH, THE MAX PROBABILITY DECREASES TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
WITH THIS IN MIND, EVEN WITH 100% OF QPF BEING SNOW, ANY SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE A DUSTING TO UP TO A HALF AN INCH. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, I DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE CHANCES ALONG
A LINE FROM THE PINE RIDGE INTO CUSTER COUNTY WHERE I HAVE THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN REACHING MEASURABLE (0.01 INCHES OF QPF).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME,
A BROAD, POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE
WILL FORCE ANY ARCTIC AIR EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO
ABOVE, TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT THE EFI AND SOT EC ENSEMBLE FORECAST, THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
VERY WARM TEMPS OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR NORTH PLATTE, THE LATEST NBM HAS TRENDED
UPWARD FOR HIGHS THURSDAY WITH A READING OF 65 DEGREES FOR LBF.
THIS IS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE 25TH TO 75TH %ILE FORECAST
WITH THE MEDIAN FORECAST AROUND 67 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE TWO
DEGREES SHY OF A RECORD HIGH FOR THE 5TH OF FEBRUARY. FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT NOSES
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTHEAST, WHILE SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA SEES
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. FOR
PERSPECTIVE, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS AVERAGE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION EAST LATE THIS WEEKEND, BEING UNDERCUT
BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION BEING FOCUSED OVER TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN
CEILINGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL DRIFT
INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL APPROACH MVFR
LEVELS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AFTER 09Z TUESDAY WITH CEILINGS
RANGING FROM 2500 TO 3500 FT AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page