468
FXUS63 KLBF 032356
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
556 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
- MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH
OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH GENERALLY WEST
TO EAST FLOW NOTED FROM THE ARKLATEX EAST TO THE CAROLINAS.
FURTHER WEST, HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER SAN FRANSISCO CA
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM
ALBERTA, TO COLORADO, KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. WITHIN THIS FLOW
DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO NORTHERN
COLORADO. THIS HAS LED TO A SHROUD OF CLOUDINESS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, A SHROUD
OF LOW CLOUDINESS WAS PRESENT WHILE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY SKIES
WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
PRESENT. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CT RANGED FROM 32 DEGREES AT
O'NEILL TO 54 DEGREES AT IMPERIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 3 PM CT, HAS A SHORTWAVE
ORIENTED ALONG THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDER.
THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. PTYPES WILL INITIALLY START OUT AS RAIN WITH
A BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AS FORCING SPREADS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, A TONGUE
OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD A NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF LIMITED ICE AND
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING-INDACITIVE OF DRIZZLE VS.SNOW/RAIN. WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT/WEDS MORNING. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT THE
280 AND 285 THETAE SURFACES, THERE IS LITTLE TO NO UPGLIDE IN
THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THAT BEING SAID, IF FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT EXPECTING MANY
IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. ATTM, THE BEST FREEZING DRIZZLE
THREAT IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTH PLATTE TO
AINSWORTH. WOULD LIKE TO EMPHASIZE ONCE AGAIN THAT ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LIMITED IMPACTS. AS FOR THE QPF
FORECAST, THE NBM ENSEMBLES, CONTINUE TO HINT AT ONLY TRACE UP
TO 0.05 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THIS
FALLING THIS EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES FAVOR RAIN VS. SNOW/FZ
DRIZZLE. PRECIPITATION WILL END MID MORNING WEDNESDAY IN THE
EAST AS THE H5 SHORTWAVE AXIS DROPS SOUTH INTO KANSAS, OKLAHOMA
AND MISSOURI. CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER H85 TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
EAST, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AS CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY.
THIS WILL FORCE WARM AIR EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY PER THE NBM,
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE EAST TO THE MIDDLE 60S
ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AT THE NBM ENSEMBLES, CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE NBM ARE BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE. WHEN INCORPORATING THE
50TH PERCENTILE, HIGHS REACH AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. THIS WOULD PUT RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY FOR NORTH PLATTE,
VALENTINE AND BROKEN BOW AS THEY ARE 69, 68 AND 66 RESPECTIVELY.
WILL UTILIZE THE OPERATIONAL NBM FOR HIGHS THURSDAY, HOWEVER,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF THESE HIGHS TREND HIGHER WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. ON FRIDAY, A STRONG ARCTIC
AIRMASS, WILL DIVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY LEADING TO COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
O'NEILL. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MIGRATE
EAST THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE
DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO FORECAST HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE EAST TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT THE NBM ENSEMBLE
SPREADS, THE OPERATIONAL NBM CONTINUES TO BE COOL AND IS AT OR
BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE THIS WEEKEND FOR HIGHS. GOING WITH THE
MEDIAN NBM FORECAST ADDS AROUND 5 DEGREES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE DO SEE
SOME READINGS AROUND 70 THIS WEEKEND IN SW NEBRASKA. FWIW,
RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S FOR NORTH PLATTE, VALENTINE, BROKEN BOW AND IMPERIAL. SO,
EVEN IF WE DO "OVER PERFORM" ON CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND, WE SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF RECORDS. BEYOND MONDAY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SOLNS, BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD TONIGHT TO NEAR HWY 83.
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE LOW CEILINGS MVFR/IFR ARE EXPECTED.
THERE EVEN BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. OTHERWISE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 83 MID-EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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