736
FXUS63 KLBF 042113
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
313 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST THREATS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. WEST OF THIS FEATURE, A SW TO NE ORIENTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AROUND CHICAGO TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WEST
OF THIS FEATURE, A REX BLOCK WAS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT NEAR
RENO NEVADA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE HIGH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. SOUTH OF THE
HIGH, LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED APPROXIMATELY 400 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON,
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EAST OF THE FRONT, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST OF THE FRONT, READINGS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CT RANGED
FROM 31 DEGREES AT O'NEILL TO 51 DEGREES AT OGALLALA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MIGRATE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA INTO
NORTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT, FORCING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO PUSH
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
WILL TRANSITION EAST FROM THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON
H85 TEMPS REACHING AROUND 7C IN THE EAST TO AROUND 11C IN THE
WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT MIXING
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN COMBINED WITH ADVERTISED H85
TEMPS AND FULL SUN, SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING, THE NBM INITIALIZED WITH
MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS FOR LBF. THIS WAS ROUGHLY AROUND THE
10TH%ILE OF THE NBM ENSEMBLE THIS MORNING. UTILIZING THE 50TH
PERCENTILE ADDED AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BROUGHT HIGHS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
STATISTICAL MET AND MAV GUIDANCE AND BETTER REFLECTS FORECAST
H85 TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, WE COULD SEE
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RECORDS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, FORECAST MINIMUM RH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BOTTOMS OUT
BETWEEN 22 AND 25 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 20 TO 25 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FWF AND HWO. AN ARCTIC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT, LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
ARCTIC AIR WILL NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH
FORECAST H85 TEMPS AROUND 5C TO 7C COOLER THAN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST. THE NBM FORECAST FOR HIGHS FRIDAY WAS
AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM ENSEMBLES. THIS FORECAST
WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE, SO NO CHANGES
PLANNED FOR HIGHS ATTM. SHIFTING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE COLD AIR
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST
BY RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. VERY WARM AIR WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING
IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENSC. THE CURRENT NBM
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW END OF THE NBM ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MAY
BE ON THE COOL SIDE. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME 70
DEGREE READINGS ON THOSE DAYS ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN WHAT THE
50%ILE TEMPS ARE IN THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLES. WARMER READINGS
WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS ON TAP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY MONDAY WITH A
DECENT COLD FRONT EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASING AS WELL WITH THE LATEST NBM
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN THE LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
A BROAD STRATUS DECK, EXTENDING FROM AROUND KVTN TO KTIF, WILL
SLOWLY TRACK EAST AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME,
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 TO 1500 FT
AGL IN THESE AREAS. EXPECT CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE BELOW.
...........FORECAST HIGH.....RECORD HIGH................
NORTH PLATTE....68 DEGREES...69 DEGREES(1904)
BROKEN BOW......66 DEGREES...66 DEGREES(2009)
VALENTINE.......64 DEGREES...68 DEGREES(1963)
IMPERIAL........69 DEGREES...74 DEGREES(1904)
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
CLIMATE...BUTTLER
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