563
FXUS63 KLBF 042351
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
551 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST THREATS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MIGRATE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA INTO
NORTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT, FORCING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO PUSH
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY
MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
WILL TRANSITION EAST FROM THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON
H85 TEMPS REACHING AROUND 7C IN THE EAST TO AROUND 11C IN THE
WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT MIXING
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN COMBINED WITH ADVERTISED H85
TEMPS AND FULL SUN, SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING, THE NBM INITIALIZED WITH
MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS FOR LBF. THIS WAS ROUGHLY AROUND THE
10TH%ILE OF THE NBM ENSEMBLE THIS MORNING. UTILIZING THE 50TH
PERCENTILE ADDED AROUND 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BROUGHT HIGHS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
STATISTICAL MET AND MAV GUIDANCE AND BETTER REFLECTS FORECAST
H85 TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, WE COULD SEE
POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN
BOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RECORDS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, FORECAST MINIMUM RH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BOTTOMS OUT
BETWEEN 22 AND 25 PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 20 TO 25 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE FWF AND HWO. AN ARCTIC TROUGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT, LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
ARCTIC AIR WILL NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY WITH
FORECAST H85 TEMPS AROUND 5C TO 7C COOLER THAN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST. THE NBM FORECAST FOR HIGHS FRIDAY WAS
AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM ENSEMBLES. THIS FORECAST
WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE, SO NO CHANGES
PLANNED FOR HIGHS ATTM. SHIFTING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE COLD AIR
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST
BY RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. VERY WARM AIR WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING
IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENSC. THE CURRENT NBM
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW END OF THE NBM ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MAY
BE ON THE COOL SIDE. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME 70
DEGREE READINGS ON THOSE DAYS ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN WHAT THE
50%ILE TEMPS ARE IN THE LATEST NBM ENSEMBLES. WARMER READINGS
WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS ON TAP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST WILL DE-AMPLIFY MONDAY WITH A
DECENT COLD FRONT EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASING AS WELL WITH THE LATEST NBM
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN THE LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
JUST OFF THE SURFACE. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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