077
FXUS63 KLBF 052057
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
257 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
- SHARP COOLDOWN WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND CANADA. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER NUNAVUT SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
WITHIN THIS TROUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED. ONE OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. TWO OTHER
SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED OVER FAR NORTHERN MANITOBA AND ANOTHER OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. WEST OF THIS FEATURE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO, NORTHERN UTAH, AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.
RIDGING EXTENDED NORTHWEST OF THIS HIGH TO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THIS RIDGE WAS UNDERCUT BY LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 300 MILES OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE INTO WESTERN IOWA. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. WEST OF THE WARM FRONT, WINDS
WERE NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM CT, WINDS WERE GUSTING UP TO 37 MPH AT BROKEN
BOW. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 59 DEGREES AT O'NEILL TO 69 DEGREES
AT IMPERIAL AND NORTH PLATTE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY, THIS FEATURE WILL
NOSE INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE MILD AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO TOTALLY DECOUPLE. FORECAST LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S IN THE WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST. AS THE ARCTIC
AIR NOSES INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, LOW CLOUDS
WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONT WILL WORK TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 42 IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
IN SW NEBRASKA. CURRENTLY AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE PERSISTENCE OF
LOW CLOUDINESS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AND THEIR IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLNS, DO HOLD ONTO LOW CLOUDINESS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGH OF 42 FOR O'NEILL MAY BE "OPTIMISTIC" WITH 30S BEING MORE
REALISTIC. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, HIGHS WERE TRENDED
DOWNWARD IN THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA AND BROUGHT CLOSER TO
STATISTICAL MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. THAT BEING SAID, IF THIS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES ON ITS LATEST TREND IN TEMPS, HIGHS WILL NEED
TO BE LOWERED FURTHER WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
IN SW NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH 850MB TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID TEENS C. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS
TRENDING TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, GENERALLY
BEING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AIDED BY A RIDGE BREAKDOWN, MONDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO COME CLOSE TO EVEN REACHING NEAR RECORD
HIGHS, BEING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE THE REGION.
THESE HIGH TEMPS AS WELL AS LOW RH PERCENTAGES BEING IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WILL BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. SATURDAY COULD BE OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CONDITIONS AS
STATED ABOVE COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN MONDAY EVENING BRINGING A CHANGE IN
REGIME TO COOLER, NEAR NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
ANYTHING MEASUREABLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AT 25000 FT AGL. LOW CLOUDINESS WILL ENTER NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY AND MOVE WEST ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. THIS LOW CLOUDINESS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CUSTER COUNTY.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL IN THESE AREAS
AFTER 14Z FRIDAY. DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF 1500 FT CEILINGS AT
THE KVTN TERMINAL AFTER 16Z.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER/MS
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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