343
FXUS63 KLBF 060918
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER READINGS TO WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RUN 25 TO NEAR
30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE
MONDAY.
- HIGHS COOLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA AND AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING, TO AS FAR WEST AS VALENTINE TO BROKEN
BOW. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
WIDELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND FAR
SOUTHWEST. LOW CLOUDINESS LINGERING OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON COULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 30S FAR NORTHEAST.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY, AND EVEN BREEZY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS FROM THE LOW 30S
NORTHWEST SANDHILLS, TO AROUND 25 PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE HREF MEAN VISIBILITY DOES
INDICATE PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL FOR 3-5 MILE VISIBILITY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE HRRR AND RAP DO NOT INDICATE THIS YET, SO WILL NOT MENTION
FOG AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLATTENS OUT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH ADVANCES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WEST, AND UPPER 60S
FAR SOUTHWEST, WITH THE FAR EASTERN ZONES REACHING THE MID 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY FALLS TO AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THESE HIGHS WILL BE FROM
25 TO NEAR 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE IS
WARMER IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY, AND THE LOW 70S TO
NEAR 75 MONDAY. THIS INDICATES THAT EVEN WARMER HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY. WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S EACH DAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH, AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH WESTERN
SANDHILLS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOWN TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EACH DAY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH THESE HIGHS MAY STILL REMAIN 5
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
WHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME ZONAL
AND MORE ACTIVE, WITH AT LEAST MORE CLOUDINESS. THIS WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS MUCH
NEEDED, THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH, AND THAT MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF A BBW TO VTN LINE. CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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