016
FXUS63 KLBF 070001
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
601 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM, POTENTIALLY RECORD-
BREAKING, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
AND MONDAY.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 16 C RANGE THROUGH
MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGHS TO EASILY RISE INTO THE
60S. A SLIGHTLY WARMER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ON MONDAY COULD EVEN
RAISE HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. CURRENT RECORD HIGHS SIT AT 74,
70, 69, AND 72 AT NORTH PLATTE, VALENTINE, BROKEN BOW, AND IMPERIAL
RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SOME IF NOT ALL OF THESE
RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN ON MONDAY AS THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO RISE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM HI-RES MODELS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. IF ANY FOG WOULD DEVELOP IT
WOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES AND
BE VERY PATCHY IN NATURE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL
AS WELL WITH SOME AREAS SEEING AS LOW AS 4 MILES AT TIMES BEFORE FOG
QUICKLY LIFTS AFTER SUNRISE.
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW RH DOWN TO NEAR 20 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
25 MPH ON SATURDAY AND EVEN LIGHTER ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY, SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THEREFORE, HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FIRE HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IMPACTS NEBRASKA. NEAR DAILY RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE NONE OF THE SYSTEMS
APPEAR TO BE BIG PRECIPITATION MAKERS, EACH ONE DOES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING AT LEAST A LITTLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION. WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW FREEZING AT
NIGHT, PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY
EXPECTING SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY,
AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS. AT THIS TIME,
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT WITH THE OVERALL LIGHT COVERAGE
IN PRECIPITATION, WOULDN'T EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ANY RESULTING
ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WIND
SHIFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR A CONCERN. WINDS WILL START OUT
OF THE EAST AND VEER TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AT 10
TO 15 GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. BY THE MORNING OF
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL SHIFT AGAIN, VEERING TO
THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME
MORE SCATTERED TO OVERCAST (MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS)HEADING INTO THE
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE
CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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